While the focus is on UFC 142 this weekend, the betting line for next weekend's UFC on FX 1 main event between Jim Miller and Melvin Guillard dropped his week, and Miller is the betting favorite. Bookmaker opened the line on Tuesday, and it hasn't moved at all as of yet. Here's what it looks like:
Miller -200
Guillard +150
Guillard is coming off the surprising loss to Joe Lauzon at UFC 136, while Miller is coming off a decision loss to Ben Henderson at UFC on Versus 5. Both had been on long winning streaks before their recent loss. In terms of the line, I believe this is about right. The fact that the bout is a three-round fight doesn't seem to make much of a difference, though Miller would probably have an advantage if it went five. Miller holds advantages in enough areas (wrestling, cardio, chin) to deserve the favorable line. But I'm sure that many people see value in Guillard, and I think the line will push down into the -160/+130 range around fight time.
Basically, if you want the best price on Melvin Guillard, get on it now.
0 recs | 45 comments
as he should IMO, guillard makes too many silly mistakes.
The Omaplatapus - January 12, 2012
That’s what happens when one guy lost his last fight in 15 minutes to the current title challenger and the other lost his last fight in 47 seconds against someone not in the top 10.
Machiel Van - January 12, 2012
I have this feeling that Guillard has learned from his mistakes and will come out fighting smart this time around. Of course, I feel this way every time he loses but still..
savik - January 12, 2012
I wonder if he learned anything at Blackzilians..
mma.ly - January 12, 2012
Maybe I should place a small bet on Guillard. Some throw away money just in case Jim Miller ’murica’s the ess outta him
Krimson - January 12, 2012
Vegas just faded Melvin.
Earl Montclair - January 12, 2012 via iPhone app
I feel like I never see comments by psychoblack anymore.
Machiel Van - January 12, 2012
He made an appearance a couple days or so ago to say that Anderson would never lose again or something
then someone said until Chael KOs him. Obviously this warranted a stern self-slapping command.
Rob Young - January 12, 2012
Maybe he’s uncomfortable being in the spotlight, like Nick Diaz.
Machiel Van - January 12, 2012
Miller by guillotine in the 2nd
Melvin’s beastly but dumb and will make a mistake within the first ten minutes of the fight.
Worldisart - January 12, 2012
Melvin looks like a mini Lebron James
terzergoss - January 12, 2012
who looks like a mini Kevin Randleman
Earl Montclair - January 12, 2012 via iPhone app
Lebron is a pretty big dude
I bet he’s bigger than Randleman.
Worldisart - January 12, 2012
definitely
dgonz - January 12, 2012
i bet none of Randleman's teammates boned his mom.
Earl Montclair - January 12, 2012 via iPhone app
What?
MicahtheCynic - January 12, 2012
delonte west
Screwed lebrons momma
kingnate78 - January 13, 2012 via mobile
Ah shit, I thought I posted mine first but after a refresh
You win…..Damn you, Montclair!
dgonz - January 12, 2012
No no, a mini Kevin Randleman!
dgonz - January 12, 2012
Realistic
In that he has an insane amount of talent but immediately folds when he comes close to reaching the top.
SSreporters - January 12, 2012
OOH!
dajulzta - January 12, 2012
Love Melvin at +150
Wouldn’t surprise me if the fight ended up at even money, though.
Patrick Wyman - January 12, 2012
just wondering
why is this not 5 rounds I thought all main events were?
Dr Tyronious - January 12, 2012
I think I read recently...
PPV/Fox cards will be 5 round mains, and FX/Fuel cards will be 3 round mains.
SteveevaD - January 12, 2012
that’s fucking stupid, you will get guys angling now.
The Omaplatapus - January 12, 2012
how much does miller look like a white paul harris/marquadt in that pic
The Omaplatapus - January 12, 2012
Yeah he kinda does.
SentientAndroid - January 12, 2012
Miller by sub prop bet or Guillard by KO prop bet is the way to go if you are going to bet on this fight.
Jeffrey McCrum - January 12, 2012
I dunno man….Miller can take a hell of a beating.
Jesus H. Christ - January 12, 2012
Just saying, if you are going to bet on either guy, do the prop bet. I don’t think it will get to the point where Miller gets beat up for 3 rounds, he either gets knocked out or he taps Guillard.
Jeffrey McCrum - January 12, 2012
whats a prop bet?
Our Bovine Public - January 12, 2012
It’s a proposition bet. Instead of betting on the straight outcome between two opponents/teams, you bet on specific outcomes or things that will happen. Betting on how many rounds a fight goes, how a fighter wins (KO, sub, decision, DQ), or who wins a tournament are the three most common prop bets in MMA. There are bazillions of options in other sports.
Tim Burke - January 12, 2012
ah
thanks
Our Bovine Public - January 12, 2012
In a couple weeks, do a search for super bowl prop bets.
You can bet on how many times the commentary teams say a certain word, exactly how long the national anthem will be, etc. Its insanity.
James Brady - January 13, 2012
Miller by sub
I don’t think there’s a lot of money to make on that bet, it’s the likeliest outcome
IRodC - January 12, 2012
as it should be Miller is more consistant and skilled fighter
Melvin has insane power and under Jacksons tutelage really started showing restrain under the Blackzillions idk
MaZZacare - January 12, 2012
Little spelling mistake
“loss to Joe Lauzon at UFC 136, while Millr”
Juelz - January 12, 2012
Thanks
Tim Burke - January 12, 2012
I'll take Miller by sub all day.
Rob Young - January 12, 2012
Vegas! SLAP YO SELF!
dajulzta - January 12, 2012
i'd have been surprised if he didn't
Cunny - January 12, 2012
Miller has a tough chin and good submissions, which is Melvin's kryptonite
I think Melvin’s gonna get faded again.
Mad-Dog - January 12, 2012
Yup Melvin fade incoming
He’s getting faded worse than Kid from Kid ’n Play
Rob Young - January 13, 2012
Melvin has too many L’s to gritty guys with submission skills for him to deserve a much better line.
3PA - January 12, 2012
Curious to see how Melvin comes out in this fight after the J-Lau loss.
To blitz or not to blitz. He’s got his work cut out for him for sure.
NickRingp4pGOAT - January 13, 2012
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