Yesterday was a busy day in the world of MMA, and one of the major stories was the UFC on Fox 2 card getting re-shuffled when Mark Munoz was forced out of his bout with Chael Sonnen. Sonnen now faces Michael Bisping, and Demian Maia will now face undefeated prospect Chris Weidman on the main card. Not long after the changes were made, the betting lines came out for the new matchups and the Sonnen/Bisping like is pretty crazy at first glance (line via Bodog.ca):
Sonnen -450
Bisping +325
While Chael should definitely be the favorite based on the style matchup, I never expected it to open with Bisping as such an underdog. As Brent stated yesterday, Bisping is tough to keep on the floor and is very active from the bottom. I'm not saying Bisping will win the bout, only that the line is off in my opinion. And as I said before, that's when I bet.
The third fight on the main card will feature prospect Chris Weidman taking Demian Maia, and while many are stating that it's too early for Weidman to take such a tough bout, the guys who set the lines (Bodog in this case) feel a bit differently:
Weidman -200
Maia +160
While Weidman has looked very impressive so far in his short career and has excellent wrestling, this is Demian Maia we're talking about. My money's on Maia already, as this line is bound to move closer to even in advance of their January 28th bout in Chicago.
0 recs | 118 comments
oh my fuck
If only I had money to drop on Demian. Most fucktarded line of the year early contender.
Paulo Filho's Psychiatrist - January 18, 2012
^This
Snatchl - January 18, 2012
Put some money on Maia now. I think Weidman with a full camp can beat him but just 2 weeks notice will hurt him in the cardio department. Even though Maia is not a cardio machine I prefer someone with a full camp over someone coming in in just 10 days.
IRodC - January 18, 2012
wow just wow
benten20 - January 18, 2012 via mobile
how in the world does this make sense?
I’m a huge weidman fan and all but this is completely ridiculous.
benten20 - January 18, 2012 via mobile
Bisping
Has been prepping for the takedowns of Demian Maia not the takedowns of one of the best MMA wrestlers. Mayhem held Bisping down for almost a full round and Chael is a way better wrestler.
LebenByTriangle - January 18, 2012
stupid
Mobile didn’t mean to reply to that comment!
LebenByTriangle - January 18, 2012
Held on the ground
Mayhem held bisping in a quarter guard against the fence for less than 2 minutes. What fight were you watching?
Patkelly - January 18, 2012
It's very possible
I’m not remembering the length of it correctly.
LebenByTriangle - January 18, 2012
That’s what she said
Skoobs - January 18, 2012
True, but if Mayhem can get you down and keep you there for a few minutes,
Chael is going to put his tiny balls against your asshole for 5 rounds.
Warbreezy - January 18, 2012
Bisping didn't have quarter guard
Mayhem almost had a super low mount, or a three quarter mount or whatever you want to call it. Shinya Aoki has completely owned guys from triangling both legs.
KJ Gould - January 18, 2012
Bisping getting berthed
Dave Strummer - January 18, 2012 via mobile
Mobil commenting is vexing
Dave Strummer - January 18, 2012 via mobile
Bodog just doesn't want to stay in business
Addicted to bankruptcy or what?
menckenstein - January 18, 2012
Lay down some serious cash on Maia
That’s ridiculous, Weidman’s -200?
crazedfan - January 18, 2012
This isn’t some crazy Bodog-only line either (on Weidman/Maia). Sportsbook opened with the same line.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
This is unrelated, but do you know when The MMA Hour is coming back Tim? I couldn’t find out myself and figured since you’re part of the SB Nation family you might know…
Machiel Van - January 18, 2012
I believe there was one yesterday.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
Can’t find it. Thanks anyway though.
Machiel Van - January 18, 2012
I’m not sure either then. Sorry.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
Here you go buddy. http://www.mmafighting.com/2012/01/17/the-mixed-martial-arts-hour-is-back-in-your-life/
The new episode from yesterday is also available on itunes and such.
Horselover Fat - January 18, 2012
Thanks!
Odd they don’t have anything about it up on The MMA Hour page. I always forget to check iTunes.
Machiel Van - January 18, 2012
Yeah, their design is not very good, I’ve had trouble finding info about it myself in the past.
Horselover Fat - January 18, 2012
There's no way that line is moving any more in wiedman's favor
Put money on Maia
nao
Full Mount - January 18, 2012
Honest question: what’s the best place to lay down money? I’m about to open an account
castleeb - January 18, 2012
Pinnacle is the best site odds-wise, but they’re usually a little behind on MMA and it’s hard to get an account in most countries. Strictly for MMA betting, I’d probably go with Bookmaker because they usually drop lines before everyone else. But their methods of deposit and withdrawal suck. Overall, I’d probably go 5Dimes or Bodog. But everyone has different preferences. I like Bodog cuz I’m Canadian and it’s super simple.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
Can I use Bodog in the US?
castleeb - January 18, 2012
It links to bovada.lv instead.
BKdroid - January 18, 2012
What he said.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
I use 5dimes in the US.
Zachary Kater - January 18, 2012
Why 5dimes? Does it have an advantage over bovada?
castleeb - January 18, 2012
Free Visa processor for depositing.
Lots of prop bets…
Cheap minimum bets, but a 50 dollar minimum deposit.
And I think they have lines pretty far into the future. Just maybe not as early as Bookmaker, what Tim mentioned.
Zachary Kater - January 18, 2012
I too use 5Dimes and have not had any bad experience
Tim Bernier - January 18, 2012
If you go the Bodog route then make sure you have either a Visa debit card or you can purchase a Visa card and put cash on it.
DayGeaux - January 18, 2012
I'm one of those guys who don't think Weidman is being thrown to the wolves
And while I believe he has a real chance of beating Maia, that’s an absolutely ridiculous line.
wonderfulspam - January 18, 2012
wow
yea i would of put money on weidman to win as an underdog but those lines are little disturbing…i still wouldnt put money on maia though either…im staying away from this one lol
JGaLaXY - January 18, 2012
Maia Bisping parlay
Yeah. I said it.
BKdroid - January 18, 2012
Rec
those lines are ridiculous, i hope you make a fortune
Robert V-U - January 18, 2012
You and me both!
BKdroid - January 18, 2012
I’m actually down with that.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
Yup
Good call
taptomyarmbar - January 18, 2012
Why parlay doggies? Just bet them straight……save the parlays for stringing heavy favorites together.
Snake_Pliskan - January 18, 2012
Because I have no clue how to bet. :)
BKdroid - January 18, 2012
OK, fair enough :-)
Snake_Pliskan - January 18, 2012
parlays pay out more.
Two_Words - January 18, 2012
I know. I was only being half serious. I don’t bet often and I put down very light money on each individually plus the parlay. High potential. Low risk.
BKdroid - January 18, 2012
But pay out nothing if any of the fighters lose. Which is why you tend not to use them when betting doggies. At current odds, bookies are saying Bisping ( +325) has a 23.5% chance of winning and Maia ( +160) has a 38.4% chance of winning. Multiple those together and you get a 9% chance of both of them winning…..if the lines are correct. Even if the lines are off and Maia and Bisping have better chances……your still looking at somewhat low chances that both of them win. Now, say you bet them straight up and only one of them wins…..you will still come out with some money in your pocket. Sure, you could run the parlay and hit the home run for a 10-1 payout, but smarter money would bet them straight up and take a win if one wins/one loses.
Snake_Pliskan - January 18, 2012
Play big or go home.
That’s the way I see it.
Or if anything, play the parlay and individual bets. 3 bets.
Two_Words - January 18, 2012
Parlays are an awful deal
Your have more EV by betting on individual fights.
jaybot - January 18, 2012
Depends on how patient you are
If, every time you bet, you put money on guys with a better true chance of winning than the line suggests, then parlays will pay off more in the long run. At the same time, it will also amplify misjudgements.
Personally, I think these odds are pretty accurate, and hence not worth betting on.
paythefighters - January 18, 2012
"true chance of winning" is a personal opinion...
the betting line on Sonnen is that he’s a significant favourite over Bisping…but I would throw some money on Bisping…even though I’m not sure he’s going to win. I would almost consider this a 50/50 fight, maybe a slight edge to Sonnen…but not as much as the betting line suggests.
I’ve seen Bisping’s game improve over the years, and I’m not blinded by the hate that most people have for him…I actually like the guy….so I have no problem saying “he’s a good fighter”.
And as for Maia-Weidman, sure Weidman’s a prospect, and Maia hasn’t subbed an opponent in a while, but Maia is still a magician on the ground and his stand-up is probably the most improved (see Maia-Munoz).
Two_Words - January 18, 2012
You shouldn't bet on odds unless you think a guy has great shot of winning
Otherwise you get got.
Okami had a big line and someone could have made a lot of money on him if he won. That said, anyone who bet on Okami against Silva is a dumbass.
discoandherpes - January 19, 2012
again, parlays are never a good deal.
say fighter A and fighter B each have a 50% chance of winning their respective matches. You would think that a 100 dollar parlay on fighter A and B would yeild you a 400 dollar return if they win, but it its always juiced down to much less, lets say 350.So you have a 25% chance to win $350 and a 75% chance to lose $100. If you bet 50 dollars on each fight seperately, you have a 25% chance to lose $100, a 50% chance to break even, and a 25% chance to win $200. Much better EV
jaybot - January 18, 2012
except that 50/50 fights don't pay out even money
The like would be -115 for example on both fighters. So you bet 100 on each and you have a 50% chance of losing 100 or gaining ~87.
Thor77 - January 19, 2012
like=line
please excuse my typo
Thor77 - January 19, 2012
Sonnen is going to ruin that parlay
discoandherpes - January 18, 2012
….and I agree with this, Chael P will probably ruin this parlay…..but Maia is a very live doggie.
Snake_Pliskan - January 18, 2012
who's Chael P?
Two_Words - January 18, 2012
If you have to ask, you can’t afford it.
Snake_Pliskan - January 18, 2012
Careful with Maia
Weidman is an accomplished enough grappler that he won’t get submitted, and he’s the better wrestler. Sooo…
crazybones - January 18, 2012
Good luck with that
Weidman has no path to victory
Stiff Jab - January 18, 2012
First round TKO
NEW-HAMPSHIRE - January 18, 2012
He definitely has some paths to victory. Being on top for 3 rounds, knocking Maia out, and a few other ways. I think the lines wrong, but Weidman is definitely capable of winning.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
He only needs to be on top for 2 rounds. And not even 2 full rounds. If he stays on top for 2 minutes in round 1 and 2 minutes in round 2, he could very well win a decision even if Maia outstrikes him.
crazybones - January 18, 2012
crazy you better come through Mr.#1 pick
inthepipes - January 18, 2012
Weidman isn't knocking anybody else
He is a smaller, less powerful, less experienced version of Munoz with better submissions, which doesn’t help him against Maia at all. He also has some pretty serious knee problems.
He might try the takedowns for decision route, but I just don’t think he can possibly avoid getting tangled up by Maia.
Stiff Jab - January 18, 2012
Have you ever even watched a fight before?
Worldisart - January 18, 2012
No
why do you ask?
Stiff Jab - January 18, 2012
So the Bisping/Sonnen is 3 rounds right?
If so, there is no way Bisping wins this.
NEW-HAMPSHIRE - January 18, 2012
Yup, it's 3
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
I can't see him winning.
His biggest wins are mayhem, Leban, and Matt Hammil if you count that as a win. He loses when he gets in there with the big dogs.
NEW-HAMPSHIRE - January 18, 2012
Sonnen is very one-dimensional and prone to submissions though. Bisping is quite active off his back and even guys like Rashad Evans had a very tough time holding him down.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
This
Bisping doesn’t have a ton of great names in his win column, but he’s been an extremely tough out for anyone who isn’t Dan Henderson. He’s more well rounded than Chael, and can be pretty effective in all phases of the game. I think he’s gonna lose, but I also think he’s tempting at that number.
Dave Strummer - January 18, 2012
He’s definitely a good value bet and that line will probably hold and may even move further apart just because there is so much Bisping hate clouding betters judgement.
He’s some good advice for anyone looking to start gambling on MMA or any other sports for that matter:
DO NOT bet on fights that you’re emotionally invested in.
Worldisart - January 18, 2012
Lets not act like Chael Sonnen and Rashad from years ago are the same caliber of wrestler
Rashad has historically had issues maintaining top control and being a consistent wrestler for MMA, while Chael has not.
discoandherpes - January 18, 2012
I agree with that, but Rashad is also larger than Sonnen.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
Really?
They seem about the same size when it comes to muscle mass, and Chael is a bit taller.
Again, I would have to look at the in person or together to really judge effectively.
discoandherpes - January 19, 2012
Yeah, I always thought Rashad was supposed to be a good fit for Middleweight.
VenusBlue - January 19, 2012
I would take marquardt over Bisping any day, add in nate has superior bjj and he couldn’t stop chael.
JaeeJaee - January 18, 2012 via mobile
good point
SentientAndroid - January 18, 2012
thanks
JaeeJaee - January 18, 2012
If you leave out early aberrations against Prangley and Forrest Griffin
Sonnen’s been submitted by Babalu, Demian Maia, Jeremy Horn, Paulo Filho and Anderson Silva. All of these men are decidedly superior grapplers compared to Michael Bisping. So it’s not like Sonnen just gets tapped by any old schmuck.
VenusBlue - January 19, 2012
Besides, Forrest Griffin is a huge LHW with great BJJ skills (even though he rarely uses them). He did dominate Shogun with those same skills though… so it’s not like Chael getting tapped by the much larger Griffin is that much of a knock on Chael.
Shnak - January 19, 2012
I left that one out because Chael stuck himself in that triangle
It was really sloppy.
VenusBlue - January 19, 2012
I don’t see much value in Bisping even at that line.
3PA - January 18, 2012
Then I'm afraid to inform you that you're blind
YPG - January 18, 2012
Whatevs. I wouldn’t even give Bisping a striking advantage.
3PA - January 18, 2012
Yep, blind. Excellent typing though.
Body Triangle - January 18, 2012
Mobile rec
T.C. Engel - January 18, 2012 via mobile
MegaLOL hahaha
taptomyarmbar - January 18, 2012
Brilliant
Holls Hoyce - January 18, 2012 via Android app
in this matchup IDK how much his striking would even come into play. Chael has a great shot and throws from the clinch.
JaeeJaee - January 18, 2012
I'm so pissed I didn't get tickets for this event...
They probably won’t be back in Chicago for a while again after this one.
Zachary Kater - January 18, 2012
Maia whupped Chael
i dont see Maia losing.
Bisping, i hope he upsets Chael.. if this was a 5 rounder i would put my money on bisping
elmojo - January 18, 2012
Yeah, and he hasn’t really done anything impressive since, aside from tagging Silva a few times in those two bizarre rounds.
Sonnen is the most submission prone top-10 (maybe top-10) in any division, and I wouldn’t bet on him repeating that feat against Sonnen. He’s going to have a tough time against Weidmann.
The only reason I’d recommend putting money on Demian is if you’d expect the line to move so far that you could guarantee yourself some cash later on.
paythefighters - January 18, 2012
Once again.. Nate Marquardt is a superior grappler to Bisping.
Sonnen took everything Nate had to offer and took home a dominant victory, save for Nate’s hail mary flurry at the end. What about Bispings decent grappling game poses more threats to Sonnen than Nate’s Great grappling game???
JaeeJaee - January 18, 2012
Honestly
Nate could have won that fight
The problem was he was working too much on submissions instead of focusing on getting up
So yes, I see Chael winning the same way he did against nate the great, Bisping will be too focused on trying to get a submission and Chael will be fully alert about it meaning hell pound his face in and not be a moron
elmojo - January 18, 2012
If he would have gotten up
He would have probably gotten taken down again.
discoandherpes - January 19, 2012
Amerikuh!
dank7 - January 18, 2012
Bisping
Is a live dog here, I will take some of that action.
taptomyarmbar - January 18, 2012
Just to reiterate some betting advice I posted higher up...
If you’re emotionally invested in this fight, whether it be because you hate Bisping, hate Sonnen or are one of the three people that love one of the two of them, DON’T BET ON THIS FIGHT.
In sports gambling the worst thing you can do is bet on something you’re emotionally invested in.
In the case of Bisping\Sonnen, Chael is rightfully the favorite but there’s great value in betting on Bisping who has a very real shot at winning this fight.
Worldisart - January 18, 2012
Dropped $50 on Maia.
Jonathan. - January 18, 2012
Money well wasted.
Shnak - January 19, 2012
That line wasnt created by some nonce that casually watches MMA
Everyone blowing their lid on the seeming outrageous disparity of the line, and needing to throw money down on Mia will be again, very angry people after the fight is over.
Mia packs 100% pure cottenelle for power in his fists
He hasn’t used his world ending Jui Juu since Rogan started with the incessant “food chain” remarks
And for those saying its too early for Weidman…is it really too early for him?…or you?
MostDiabolicalCasanova - January 18, 2012
You’d probably have a little more cred if you spelled maia right. Just sayin’.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
That’s the only thing that’s hurting his credibility?
Worldisart - January 18, 2012
Really....
MostDiabolicalCasanova - January 18, 2012
Tony Stark does not approve.
MicahtheCynic - January 18, 2012
In his defense, at least he got Jiu Juu correct.
Forbidden Psychological Technology - January 18, 2012
Is it any wonder Mia has pillowfists?
Soccer players can’t use their arms, dude.
gzl5000 - January 18, 2012
...
Sugel Mendoza - January 18, 2012
Anyone interested in this line?
Kendall “Da Spyder” Grove -300
Ikuhisa “Minowaman” Minowa +230
That seems a little silly. Minowa is no world beater but what has “Da Spyder” ever done?
ReAnimator - January 18, 2012
You think this guy isn't a world beater!?
MINOWAMAAAAANNNNNN!!!!!!!!!
Sugel Mendoza - January 18, 2012
I can't NOT rec this
dgonz - January 19, 2012
I’m a huge minowaman fan, for sure, i guess i phrased that poorly lol.
I’m going to drop a couple bucks on Minowa, he’s faced some of the best in the world and has no problem going against guys who are way taller than him, kendall hasn’t ever really done much.
ReAnimator - January 19, 2012
Kendall Grove is a much better fighter than Minowaman
And that is why he is a huge favorite.
discoandherpes - January 19, 2012
only a fool bets against Minowaman
what is the over under on 3+ missile drop kicks?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - January 19, 2012
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