The UFC returns for their second event of the year this Friday night in Nashville, and it's full of tough picks. The odds are relatively close for most fights, and with good reason - no one's sure who is going to win. The main event line between Jim Miller and Melvin Guillard has closed slightly with some money coming in on Melvin's side, and I expect that to continue in advance of the fight. If you want to bet on Miller, wait until just before the fight.
In other main card bouts, Duane Ludwig opened as a bigger favorite but all the early money has come in on Josh Neer. Tread lightly in that fight though. Pat Barry has quickly emerged as a larger favorite than when the line opened, so jump on him right now if you're interested in betting on him (I already did). On the undercard, there's a whole lot of guessing. The only solid values that jump out at me are Jorge Rivera at +130 and Pat Schilling at +110 (and falling), but this doesn't seem like a card that you're going to be making a lot of money on. Sorry folks. Anyway, here are the lines (undercard after the jump as usual):
Lines via bookmaker.eu
Jan 20th, live on FX from Nashville, TN:
Main Card:
Jim Miller (20-3) -180 vs. Melvin Guillard (29-9-2) +150
Duane Ludwig (21-11) -130 vs. Josh Neer (32-10-1) EV
Mike Easton (11-1) -335 vs. Jared Papazian (14-6, 1 NC) +265
Pat Barry (6-4) -165 vs. Christian Morecraft (7-2) +135
Preliminary Card:
Charlie Brenneman (14-3) -300 vs. Daniel Roberts (12-3) +230
Kamal Shalorus (7-1-2) -130 vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (16-0) EV
Fabricio Camoes (13-6-1) -365 vs. Tom Hayden (8-0) +275
Jorge Rivera (19-9) +130 vs. Eric Schafer (12-6-2) -160
Nick Denis (10-2) -240 vs. Joseph Sandoval (6-1) +190
Daniel Pineda (14-7) -140 vs. Pat Schilling (5-0) +110
0 recs | 130 comments
I like Guillard here
DK_Monster - January 18, 2012
I’m going to have to go with Miller. He has the wrestling to take down Guillard and he has more than enough submission skills to finish him.
Tim Bernier - January 18, 2012
he definitely has enough submission skills
but i don’t know about his wrestling. guillard has one of the best TD defense.
since nick diaz fight, no one took him down and hold him there. diaz took him down multiple times but he popped right back up.
the only reason why he got submitted by diaz is because he went for a take down (still don’t know why he was shooting in when he was dominating diaz on standing) then got submitted
so yea, I may be too high on guillard’s wrestling but i think this fight will prove me right.
DK_Monster - January 18, 2012
Nick Diaz fought Melvin Guillard? Probably nto.
SSreporters - January 18, 2012
Nate.
djfivenine - January 18, 2012
Nate
sorry
DK_Monster - January 18, 2012
Because he's not a smart fighter
He’s got all the talent in the world but consistently fights dumb. That’s why he’s going to lose to Jim Miller.
Worldisart - January 18, 2012
I like Miller here
menckenstein - January 18, 2012
I like Cheesburgers.
MicahtheCynic - January 18, 2012
In all seriousness though, I hope Barry knocks Morecraft’s stupid tattoo off his belly.
MicahtheCynic - January 18, 2012
I think Morecraft takes Barry down and pounds the shit out of him
He better, because he’s a pretty hopeless striker and would get destroyed on the feet.
SSreporters - January 18, 2012
Keep in mind that his fight IQ isn’t that great. He stood and traded with both Struve and Meathead.
MicahtheCynic - January 18, 2012
Pat Barry's fight IQ isn't too good either
His wild attempt at finishing Kongo and then…well…any form of ground skills.
You don’t have to be great to beat Pat Barry. Tim Hague I think got rocked in that fight and still subbed HD.
SSreporters - January 18, 2012
He played it smart against Hardonk though. When Barry paces himself he does well. When he rushes things he often makes massive mistakes.
MicahtheCynic - January 18, 2012
He's also pretty bad against guys who are his friends
He likes Struve, he likes Cro-Cop.
Morecraft better be friends with him by Friday.
SSreporters - January 18, 2012
No kidding.
Joe Silva: Micah, you’ve got a fight against Pat Barry in three months.
Me: Alrighty, Joe. I’ll be ready. (calls Pat Barry) Hey, Pat! Want a beer?
MicahtheCynic - January 18, 2012
So Pat Barry had a good fight 2 and a half years ago?
Worldisart - January 18, 2012
He was doing pretty well against Kongo...
…until he wasn’t
Dave Strummer - January 18, 2012
So in summation
He’s had all of 60 seconds of good fighting since he beat Hardonk two and a half years ago.
And let’s note that that 60 seconds of effectiveness against Kongo was followed by several minutes of unconsciousness.
Worldisart - January 18, 2012
He knocked down Cro Cop twice in the first round but busted his hand and foot.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
He also beat Beltran.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
Did you watch the Beltran fight?
Thoroughly uninspiring.
I get that I’m exaggerating, but nonetheless, Pat Barry’s UFC career is filled with a lot of really low lows and a few only moderate highs.
Worldisart - January 18, 2012
He'd have been cut long ago in any other division
…but then, so would Morecraft.
Dave Strummer - January 18, 2012
The combination of being a HW and very personable has saved Pat Barry from the fact that he sucks.
Worldisart - January 18, 2012
I'm with you.
He’ll probably end up taking his back and getting the choke.
POW - January 18, 2012
Don't you mean cheezburger?
Horselover Fat - January 18, 2012
I like Rivera, Neer, and Morecraft on these odds
Especially Neer. Ludwig’s cardio is a big question mark and Neer has good submission skills. I think Neer takes it by sub.
SSreporters - January 18, 2012
Can't believe Rivera's a dog here
Probably the most favorable line on the card. Neer at even money is pretty solid, too.
Patrick Wyman - January 18, 2012
Eric Schafer is dreadful. Whatever Duke Roufus taught him it didn't work.
I expect Rivera (unless his skills have really declined) to outstrike him and get the TKO.
SSreporters - January 18, 2012
I like Rivera too
but 2 issues:
1. Rivera has talked about retiring lately, so he may not be very motivated.
2. Schafer’s got a helluva chin.
Two_Words - January 18, 2012
True
Not sure if I’d go for the TKO, though it’s a strong possibility, but a comfortable decision isn’t a stretch.
Patrick Wyman - January 18, 2012
Is there anyway the loser of the Barry/Morecraft fight is still in the UFC by the next event?
MattParker117 - January 18, 2012
The more events they put on
The higher the likelihood that guys with 3 fight losing streaks get to stay so that they can fill these cards.
SSreporters - January 18, 2012
I think Barry picks up another leg kick TKO so -175 odds aren’t bad. I wish 5Dimes would hurry up and get their lines up.
A Miller, Barry, Easton, Brenneman parlay pays around +320 to +350 depending on the site.
Tim Bernier - January 18, 2012
5Dimes is up now.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
Will Barry be able to reach Moorecraft's chin?
The Struve fight was fucking hilarious because of that
menckenstein - January 18, 2012
Random Thoughs
After losing to Lauzon in the fahsion that he did, I think there’s some nice value in Guillard. A motivated and focused Guillard is as dangerous as anyone at 155. However, leaving Greg Jackson was weird and enough to scare me out of making any kind of signifigant wager.
If Neer gets this to the ground I think he’ll win but he seems like the type who’s easily drawn into a " standup war". I think Ludwig picks him apart on the feet for 3 rounds.
They are BEGGING you take Riveria at +130. These lines always scare me. I love Rivera but why is he a dog? Lines seem like they should be reversed. Proceed with caution.
Mongoose44 - January 18, 2012
Honestly, I think your assessment of Neer/Ludwig is spot on, but I think Bang TKOs him. Neer just, well, sucks.
MicahtheCynic - January 18, 2012
I’ve been a huge Melvin fan for a long time, but it’s been tough. It seems like every time he gets close to the top he beats himself.
Miller/Barry parlay
DayGeaux - January 18, 2012
I know everybody is high on Easton
But Papazian might be worth a few bucks at +265. He beat Abel Cullum and has generally faced some decent competition. For what it’s worth, Fight Matrix rank him 17 spots above Easton.
wonderfulspam - January 18, 2012
What a captain
Afrotikiman - January 18, 2012 via mobile
Hey yo, check your e-mail for pick discussion!
wonderfulspam - January 18, 2012
Bodog has been putting out some wacky lines today.
Makes my bank account bigger.
sklart - January 18, 2012
It's not just Bodog
www.bestfightodds.com
Tim Bernier - January 18, 2012
i dont bet $ anymore but there probably is some value on Melvin at +150 but I cant pick him to win. I’m prob going all chalk except Nurmagomedov. Neer has those sweet elbows in tight but I’m counting on Ludwig to win 2 rounds by using his footwork to keep the range he wants.
Hardy's in your face - January 18, 2012
anybody else gonna actually be at the event?
troy145 - January 18, 2012
Damn it’s gone be some broke ass ppl sat morning miller is getting worked.. Guillards comeback begins miller is the first victim
psychoblack - January 18, 2012 via mobile
Nope.
MicahtheCynic - January 18, 2012
MicahtheCynic - January 18, 2012
SIG BET???
menckenstein - January 18, 2012
I can’t wait to see your posts Saturday morning, no matter how it goes.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
Dude, you came around when Rampage was about to fight Jones, constantly trolled about how he was going to be champ, and then he got dominated and finished for the first time in the UFC. You then started trolling about how Guillard was going to get a title shot and be champ in 2012 and then he got rocked and choked out by Joe Lauzon of all people. Then you started making claims about how Anthony Johnson was going to run through Vitor Belfort and the Middleweight division, only for him to miss weight by 11 lbs., get choked out by Vitor and released from the UFC. I think the best thing you could do for Guillard is not to root for him.
kreally - January 18, 2012
I think any damage psychoblack is doing by rooting for Guillard is undone by MicahTheCynic supporting Miller, to be honest.
wonderfulspam - January 18, 2012
How so? I picked against Guillard and Rumble in their last fights and was dead on.
MicahtheCynic - January 18, 2012
You normally pick the wrong guy…I’m second guessing Ludwig now
Afrotikiman - January 18, 2012 via mobile
I don’t know why-
wonderfulspam - January 18, 2012
Cold blooded
Afrotikiman - January 18, 2012 via mobile
Oh man...
The AJ thing was the funniest ever though… running through Belfort? Classic… I really do enjoy his posts, though.
Atomic Salmon - January 18, 2012
Joe Lauzon “of all people”?
Joe Lauzons a damn good fighter, especially in the early going.
troy145 - January 18, 2012
I was talking about getting caught and rocked by Lauzon. Pretty embarrassing when you’re supposed to be the superior striker.
kreally - January 18, 2012
Joe Lauzon's striking is very underrated
SSreporters - January 18, 2012
Yes it is, but it’s no where near Guillard’s. Guillard could have had him out of there in the second round at the latest had he stuck to a sturdy gameplan, but he came in swinging wildly like it would be a piece of cake and lost. That punched a fucking hole in my heart because I truly wanted to see him in a title match. Either way, on a different note, I noticed that Subbevil hasn’t placed his picks in the last two cards. I joined mmaplayground a little while ago and I’ve already placed my picks for friday. If he’s out, I’d love to be part of the beard.
kreally - January 18, 2012
We’re not doing replacements, unfortunately, although an exception was made for RolloTomasi who asked to be cut unlike Subbevil who just hasn’t made his picks. Keep making your picks and sign up for the next season which starts after UFC Sweden!
wonderfulspam - January 18, 2012
That fucking sucks, but oh well.
I’ll definitely be there next season. I’d love to take part in a rematch with Mania as well, but I’ll stick with the Civil War for now.
kreally - January 18, 2012
I know it’s scant consolation but you could always trash talk the current players even though you’re not participating in the war. Your scores for the first two events have been good, so you might as well talk a big game so future captains know they can rely on you for picks & trash talk.
wonderfulspam - January 18, 2012
Of course.
I didn’t even think of that. Thanks man. I promise this will be one of the biggest turns from quiet and secluded to hated with a passion since Chael Sonnen decided to open his fucking mouth.
kreally - January 18, 2012
He also got rocked by Joe Daddy back in the day. Much worse.
POW - January 18, 2012
Nobody saw that result coming.
Machiel Van - January 18, 2012
How is that "trolling"
That’s called predicting who I think is gonna win a fight.. What your doing now is “trolling” telling me every single thing I said dating way back to ufc 135 what are you a stalker? Man anyways guillard is going to dominate miller and I’m sticking by that
psychoblack - January 18, 2012 via mobile
Oh please.
I don’t need to stalk you. You’re in every fucking article on here that’s either about Guillard, Johnson, Rampage or A. Silva. Yes, trolling. All you talk about is how your favorite fighter is going to make it big and go on some unstoppable winning streak without giving any credit or respect to the guy they are about to fight. That’s what makes it so funny when your guy loses.
kreally - January 18, 2012
Get off Psychoblack's case
We dont take kindly to your type ’round here
But seriously, rooting for your fighter isnt illegal
Full Mount - January 18, 2012
I'm fine with rooting.
I root for my favorite fighters all the time, but I don’t make outrageous claims about them and get on others cases when they want to argue their points about the other fighter. I argue my points instead of basically telling them to fuck off. Also, I may be a little biased towards Miller and Jones.
kreally - January 18, 2012
He doesn’t argue though. Not to any huge degree anyway.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
That's kind of my point.
I love Jones and Miller and I will sit here and we could go back and forth for hours arguing different points about them and their upcoming fights, but I don’t sit here and tell you to fuck off when you have a differing opinion. That’s where my claim of trolling comes from.
kreally - January 18, 2012
He’s never told anyone to fuck off though. Ever. He’s never really gone at a commenter at all, other than the humorous slap yoself thing. Calling you a stalker is about the worst I’ve seen from him. And that’s nothing.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
I don’t mean actually saying “fuck off.” I’m talking more about the “slap yo self” thing and the “he’s going to win and that’s all I’ve got to say about that” thing followed by disappearing until the next article comes out.
kreally - January 18, 2012
Do you think Guillard will be able to keep his nerves calm and fight a smart fight against Miller like he’s promising?
Machiel Van - January 18, 2012
Not really.
He left Jackson’s camp. He was doing so well. I was high on his nuts until he pulled the same old routine with Lauzon followed by this camp switch. He was fighting so smart with Jackson and then out of nowhere he decides to go back to his own antics and now I don’t know where his head’s at.
kreally - January 18, 2012
I agree. It seems likely he’ll start out smart and controlled, but at some point he’ll think he sees an opening, throw his gameplan out the window and then will lose control and get caught. I hope not but we’ve seen it so many times before.
Machiel Van - January 18, 2012
So.....
Slap yo self
ThatsHowIRoll - January 18, 2012
you are getting angry over slap yo self?
really??
Andy Anderson - January 18, 2012
Looks to me like kreally just got faded. Slap yoself.
Horselover Fat - January 18, 2012
We'll see who gets faded on Saturday.
Speaking of faded. A fucking 26 for 142! I did over two times better than that and I’m not even part of this war.You better step up, buddy or I’ll have to take your spot next season.
kreally - January 18, 2012
Good comeback! Maybe I shouldn’t try to fade people for a while, with this embarrassment looming over me.
Horselover Fat - January 18, 2012
Seriously though, if it's ok...
What’s the bet that got you such a low number?
kreally - January 18, 2012
What do you mean? It was a combination if many poor choices. Although looking back at it, it’s mostly only picking against Vitor and Gonzaga that looks really stupid in hindsight.
You can check yourself if you want to: http://www.mmaplayground.com/picks.aspx?UID=41888&EID=120
Horselover Fat - January 18, 2012
Eh, that link doesn't work.
That’s cool though. I know what you mean. I had Vitor and Gonzaga winning in the first round, but by KO. I would’ve never predicted a sub from both.
kreally - January 18, 2012
Oh ok
I thought about changing to Vitor TKO and Gonzaga sub after I saw the weigh-ins, where I thought Gonzagas opponent looked really soft and weak, plus Rumbles gigantic failure. For some reason I never did it though, sadly.
Here are my picks then:
Horselover Fat - January 18, 2012
I always say that you can’t pick too many decisions but man …. that’s a lot of decisions.
wonderfulspam - January 18, 2012
Yeah, I know right? Definitely too many decisions here, guess I half-assed it a bit. I feel good about Friday though, have done a little more research and picked more finishes! We’ll see how it goes.
Horselover Fat - January 18, 2012
Ahh.. just learned how to get the pic.
Here’s mine.
kreally - January 18, 2012
Wrong event.
kreally - January 18, 2012
Right, there you go. I’ll beat you next time though, guarantee it.
Horselover Fat - January 18, 2012
Oh really?
Well Lets Mutherfukers, homie. Sig bet. I may not be part of this season, but that doesn’t mean I can’t have some fun. At the end of the CW season, the one with the most points wins. You down?
kreally - January 18, 2012
End of the season you say.. yeah, what the hell, why not. I normally hate sig bets but I feel the need to defend my honor. Let’s make it sig and picture, for one month?
Horselover Fat - January 19, 2012
Seems like
kreally just doesn’t care for psychoblack and his slap-filled antics. He just doesn’t realize that psychoblack can’t be faded. Anyway, moving on…
Machiel Van - January 18, 2012
Having an opinion isn’t trolling.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
It could be considered trolling when in every article he’s constantly stating that his favorite fighter is the best fighter of all time, that no one else’s opinion matters and constantly telling people to slap themselves when they do have differing opinions.
kreally - January 18, 2012
I've
agreed with all the self -slappings he’s inposed on others
Full Mount - January 18, 2012
Psychoblack trolling?
Slap yo self!
Worldisart - January 18, 2012
You are going to have to slap yourself SOOOOO hard for this comment.
Dave Strummer - January 18, 2012
The guy has 224 comments in 6 months. It’s not as bad as you’re making it, plus people get a kick out of him. He’s not confrontational and he’s amusing. Chiiiillllll.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
I don't need to chill. I'm not really mad at psychoblack.
I’m more mad at guillard than anything. I was riding his nuts on the way to what should have been his title shot. Now he’s pulled all this shit and I don’t know what the fuck is up with him. It’s hard as hell being the fan of someone who has so much potential and who should be champion, but who has such a piss poor mindset.
kreally - January 18, 2012
He just made too much money and got too much hype too early. Hopefully now that he’s more mature he’ll really learn from that last loss and we won’t see “throw the gameplan under the bus” Melvin this time.
Machiel Van - January 18, 2012
If that’s the case, I can no longer be a fan of his. I can’t keep falling in love with the idea of a Guillard title shot if he keeps getting within an inch of it, only to let his mind get in the way and fall back. That’s why I love Jon Jones. He has so much potential and such a strong mind. He learns what he needs to and follows the gameplan. Now he’s the champ and the only one to bring stability to the light heavyweight division in years. If Guillard had Jones’ mindset, I’d always be on his side.
kreally - January 18, 2012
I think the best thing you can do for Guilard is not root for him.
Hardy's in your face - January 18, 2012
I won't be.
Miller all the way.
kreally - January 18, 2012
The guy is a straight up boss...
And whether you agree with his clearly emotional predictions or not they are funny as hell and I respect his loyalty to his favourite fighters.
ThatsHowIRoll - January 18, 2012
Dude I will rec all of your comments for as long as I live
SSreporters - January 18, 2012
Yes! 'black is back!
I knew they couldn’t fade you PB!
Machiel Van - January 18, 2012
YUS!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwIvBNsSywQ
Chris Groves - January 18, 2012
Just gotta say..
…that I enjoyed watching Lauzon own Guillard so much. Nothing like watching a super cocky fighter with a ridiculous walk-in just get destroyed by an opponent that he thought was zero threat. Instant classic in my mind.
MadNachos - January 18, 2012
Yeah, I was laughing my ass off when that happened. So funny.
Horselover Fat - January 19, 2012
I'm still on the train...
I hope Guillard trucks him!
ThatsHowIRoll - January 18, 2012
Spike tv is actually having a Melvin marathon
RECE ROCK - January 18, 2012 via mobile
can anyone tell me
Why didn’t they put more big names on this card? Shouldn’t the UFC be trying to make a bigger impression for this inaugural FX event?
MuyThaiGroinAssault - January 18, 2012 via iPhone app
Huh?
Guillard and Miller are two pretty big name guys who always come to mutherfukers. Bang Ludwig and Neer are two outstanding kickboxers who will probably put on a hell of a standup clinic. This is much better than some of the Spike cards we were given before. They intelligently saved their bigger stars for the Fox cards and PPV while providing what should be an epic night of fights on FX.
kreally - January 18, 2012
everytime i think about Guillard I think of this dude
Captain Leroy Hotdog Zanzibar - January 18, 2012
k really
you seem cool, welcome to the commune.
but, for the love of all that is holy,
DO.
NOT.
FUCK.
WITH.
PSYCHOBLACK.
gspmademegay - January 18, 2012
Fine then. I'll fuck with you, buddy.
First off, it’s kreally. Get the fucking space out of there. Second, I’ve been here longer than you, bro. I don’t need a welcome from anyone, especially someone who questions their sexuality because of a fucking french canadian. Finally, I’ve noticed that you’ve only got 103 points this season. 45 points for 142! C’mon son! Come next season, I’m going to pick circles around you.
kreally - January 18, 2012
im smelling a banhammer up in here
Andy Anderson - January 18, 2012
You're not part of the CW.
So I guess you’re safe.
kreally - January 18, 2012
I am going to make some assumptions
You were not here for mmaintellegence, and thus did not learn the lessons of Northern England. You are not in fact part of the BE Civil War, although you have correctly guessed I am not either. Also respect the Mods and avoid discussing politics or religion.
Some advice that I have gained from my few months here, psychoblack is one of the national treasures of BE nation, and Ben Saunders is our king. GSP is Exposed and GSP is ME. Roth wakes up in train yards.
P.S. Avoid the sarcasm font.
Andy Anderson - January 18, 2012
Dude, trust me. I know all that shit.
I’ve been around long enough and seen enough assholes get banned to understand how everything works in the land of BE. I always double check to make sure I’m not being too big of a dick. You particularly don’t have to worry, unless you decide to join the Civil War next season and are not on my team.
kreally - January 19, 2012
He’s good.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
I don't always remember the rules
but when I do, I follow them.
Honestly I try to treat everyone here as I would in person, and I avoid religious and political discussions. That about covers it right?
Andy Anderson - January 18, 2012
Yup. And don’t piss off Nate. And you mist call Roth “Cabbage” or “Cabs” once a week.
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
*must
Tim Burke - January 18, 2012
You forgot to add “kissing the mods asses”
Horselover Fat - January 19, 2012
Burke's got my back.
Thanks, bro.
kreally - January 19, 2012
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