The UFC had a remarkable 2011 in the face of a painful bad luck streak of injuries, illnesses and suspensions that cost them 11 out of 14 planned main events according to CEO Lorenzo Fertitta talking to the LA Times. There were at most only three UFC cards that sold more than 500,000 pay-per-view buys (UFC 126, 129 and maybe 141) compared with 11 500K + PPVs in 2010.
But it was more than just the injuries and the loss of the mega-events that hurt the UFC in 2011. Dave Meltzer in the Wrestling Observer (subscription required) has put together a comparison of what he calls "baseline shows" from 2009, 2010 and 2011. Once you eliminate the Brock Lesnar, Georges St. Pierre and Rashad Evans vs. Rampage Jackson cards a clear picture emerges, the UFC brand is selling fewer PPVs:
We all know the prime reason UFC was down the level it was down is because of all the injuries this year. There were more baseline shows which took down the average. The only positive to come out of the year was the light heavyweight title, the historically best title when it comes to drawing, had three defenses, plus Jon Jones appears to be a slightly bigger draw as champion than Shogun Rua was. But just the name UFC on PPV seems to mean 14% less than two years ago and 9% less than last year.
Part of the downslide is the weakness of the lighter divisions as PPV attractions. With the loss of superstar champion B.J. Penn, the lightweight title is now one of the weakest headliners possible for a UFC card. The new featherweight and bantamweight divisions are even weaker. It's possible that Urijah Faber and Dominick Cruz coaching the first FX season of The Ultimate Fighter will turn things around, but if Faber loses to Cruz again, don't hold your breath waiting for another bantamweight title fight on top of a PPV card.
The next factor hindering growth has been the failure of new stars to emerge as bonafide PPV draws. The generation of UFC stars that the 2005-2010 explosion was built on -- Chuck Liddell, Tito Ortiz, Randy Couture, Matt Hughes -- has faded from the scene. The only two true stars to emerge since then, Georges St. Pierre and Brock Lesnar, were largely unavailable in 2011 and GSP won't return until late this year. Lesnar is now retired.
Light heavyweight champion Jon Jones may yet emerge as a superstar, he's certainly got the talent, but so far he's failed to put up huge PPV numbers. Middleweight champ Anderson Silva finally showed signs of emerging as a draw in 2010/2011 but its clear that he's only a draw when facing a perceived threat to his title. He'll be out with injuries until mid-2012 regardless.
MMA Payout identifies the other big factor hurting the UFC's PPV business:
Of course another factor in addressing the PPV buys is PPV fatigue. There will be 16 PPVs this year with a PPV almost a bimonthly happening. Its hard for a fan to pay over $100 bucks a month in PPVs in addition to their normal cable/satellite bill.
BE alumni nottheface expands on this point at Headkick Legend and even takes the speculation another step:
The common wisom is that the FOX deal will play big dividends for the UFC, and I don't disagree. I just don't think it will stop the decline in payperview sales. For starters they can expect no more than one fight from GSP and none from Brock Lesnar, by far the two biggest draws they've had the last few years. In addition they face the reality that half of all households in the U.S. have no disposable income so none of these new Fox fans are going to buy into a payperview market they've already oversaturated and bled dry (intentionally in my opinion -they knew the fad wouldn't last). The repercussions are going to big, with a lot of disgruntled stars now making a smaller cut of the revenue and large debt payment eating up all the owners profits.
Zuffa will sell the UFC
OK, a couple of caveats wth this one. One, I'm going to give myself an extra 6-months for this to happen. July 1st, 2013. Secondly, I don't mean Zuffa will sell the whole company, although that is a possibility, but they will sell at least 20% of the UFC to an outside party. By doing so Zuffa can eliminate a lot of their debt payments and not have to worry about tightening their belts and eliminating the dividend payments the owners have grown so accustomed to.
I'm a bit more sanguine about the UFC's chances over the short term than NTF. I think that the emergence of Nick Diaz and Alistair Overeem as stars is a very real possibility in 2012, especially with the PR muscle of Fox Sports pushing them.
What do you think? Will the UFC turn things around in 2012 or not?
0 recs | 173 comments
Just depends on the cards. They need some big name fights. We need some mega-fights. Also if SOPA passes and becomes law, UFC buy rates will skyrocket.
HTF - January 2, 2012
that is some complete horseshit about SOPA
Kid Nate - January 2, 2012
SOPA sucks
’Nuff said!
Mr. Socko - January 2, 2012 via mobile
^This
Because a lot of people fail to grasp the idea that people that pirate events will not buy them the next day anyway
IRodC - January 2, 2012
scratch that last part about
“the next day”
IRodC - January 2, 2012
If SOPA passes the world will hate us for good
Our government cannot bitch about Chinese internet censorship and then turnaround and propose that ghastly thing.
SSreporters - January 2, 2012
This +1000.
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
Add
+1000 from me. Call your congressman, SOPA is a raw deal!
Mr. Socko - January 2, 2012 via mobile
The funny thing is that even the political issues aside,
the technology behind the execution is going to be way behind what pirates will develop to get around it.
Hey Congress! We’re nerds and we’re good at what we do. You pay Geek Squad $125 to go into msconfig and stop a program from loading on startup. Good luck, guys.
pdl - January 2, 2012
SOPA would even destroy free porn
liptondrift - January 2, 2012
AND THAT WE CANNOT ALLOW!!!!!!!!
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
Yeah we need to stand up for what's right.
Lauren J Darkbloom - January 2, 2012
Damn right!
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
is 'lauren darkbloom' your porn name?
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
mine used to by Tyrone Honeybee.
but i was ruined by Colbert.
Victor Rodriguez - January 2, 2012
Wait, what? Really?
Aww, hell naw!!! We ridin tonight!!!
warren305 - January 2, 2012
The American Ronin - January 2, 2012
Far from it
If people want to buy something they’ll buy it
They won’t start spending suddenly just because they can’t get it for free
Cunny - January 2, 2012
People who pirate stuff probably won’t buy it if pirating was suddenly a lot more difficult to do.
discoandherpes - January 2, 2012
Like Lorenzo had said before in that one interview, they had a lot of main events fall apart.
I’m sure it’ll be better but probably not as glorious as 2010.
menckenstein - January 2, 2012
I don't think so
Just so many events, and unless its special its not worth it to lay the money for a PPV. And what is this debt that is going to cause it to sell? Didn’t they just sign a deal approaching a billing dollars total? How could they not pay the debt off?
closetasfan - January 2, 2012
they've got a massive loan coming due soon - I think around 1/2 billion
they’ve been paying just the interest and skimming the profits to pay the Fertittas and Dana from what I understand.
Kid Nate - January 2, 2012
...and they'll almost certainly just re-finance it over into a new loan
That’s pretty much how all corporate debt works.
joker24 - January 2, 2012
Yeah, like I was saying below, some companies want a lot of debt for tax purposes.
Bolshevik - January 2, 2012
Two things that i think need to be mentioned.
Wrestlefuck and Pointbox: Fighting styles that have really put doubt into the minds of potential PPV buyers. Are you going to get an exciting fight or are you gonna get a nick lentz, volkmann style fight which kills any interest in the sport for casual fans
terzergoss - January 2, 2012
And thats why GSP is still a bigger draw than alot of the balls to the wall fighters like Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit?
bigdmmafan - January 2, 2012
lets be clear GSP does not fight like Volkmann or Lentz
terzergoss - January 2, 2012
Then what fighters are you referring to, Lentz and Volkmann are never on main cards of even the free cards.
bigdmmafan - January 2, 2012
But these are guys who are fighting that lead up the main card. Like ross pearson fight and the danny castillo fight just in the last card. They were snoozers to the casual audience
terzergoss - January 2, 2012
If GSP was American GSP would not be a big draw (compared to other champions)
menckenstein - January 2, 2012
I love this explanation, if only for its gross oversimplification.
Canada has 1/10 the population of the United States – and yet, somehow, that 1/10 population accounts for all GSP’s popularity and endorsements (by American brands).
Disco-Platypus - January 2, 2012
Yes because GSP PPVs get millions of buys...
slap yourself in the intellegence
menckenstein - January 2, 2012
GSP has broken one million buys once.
It is a silly and reductionist explanation, give it up. The ‘nationalist push’ accounts for a significant portion of GSP’s popularity, but that does not explain: a) his crossover appeal (see: you know, his endorsements), nor b) his global (yes, including the United States) popularity. Large brands like Gatorade or Under Armour would not invest that type of advertising in a fighter who is only popular in such a comparatively small market.
Beyond that, if GSP’s popularity could be wholly explained away by Canadians, than his non-Canadian gates would be skewed from Canadian gates – they are not.
Disco-Platypus - January 2, 2012
I was being facetious
GSP would still be popular, he’s a UFC champion, he just wouldn’t get as many PPV buys as he does if he were not Canadian. Also look at any non-candian + non-LV gate, there’s a huge deviation there.
menckenstein - January 2, 2012
Non-Canadian. Can't into typing.
menckenstein - January 2, 2012
Canada is a disproportionately powerful market for MMA
the % of Canadians who buy UFC ppvs is way way higher than the % of US citizens who do the same.
Kid Nate - January 2, 2012
I am Canadian.
Still doesn’t explain it entirely.
Even being Canadian I have come to despise GSP, mostly due to watching UFC 129 live, but it is a bit of a silly argument. Blaming Canada holds good for many things – Celine Dion, Bryan Adams, etc – but this isn’t one of those occasions.
Is it a large part of his popularity? Of course. As large as people make it out to be? No, not at all.
Disco-Platypus - January 2, 2012
'heaven' is a pretty bad-ass song.
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
the % of Canadians who buy UFC ppvs is way way higher than the % of US citizens who do the same.
You are also working with percentages, and not absolute numbers, Nate. Halifax is traditionally one of the strongest per-capita fight markets in North America in terms of PPV buyrates, but it is comprised by less than 400,000 people.
Canada has 1/10 the population of the United States, and even as a whole cannot solely account for GSP’s popularity. That is all I am saying.
Disco-Platypus - January 2, 2012
sure
but it remains a big factor in GSP’s success. Just like BJ Penn coming from Hawaii, another area where MMA is disproportionately popular, helped BJ become a superstar.
Kid Nate - January 2, 2012
don't forget Nickelback
the city of Detroit blames you
cletusvandam - January 2, 2012
The auidiences for UFC PPV in Canada rival Hockey Night.
MattParker117 - January 2, 2012
No.
No, they do not. HNIC usually pulls in around 2-3 million viewers on CBC. Unless only Canadians are buying every PPV, then it is not close.
Disco-Platypus - January 2, 2012
HNIC stands for Hockey Night in Canada?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAhahahiojfdsjfsdfjaifsfafaa
I’m really glad I know that now
Cunny - January 2, 2012
Don't be a cunny.
Disco-Platypus - January 2, 2012
.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=HNIC
Cunny - January 2, 2012
Here's where I got that Statistic
http://cuedigitalmedia.com/advertisers/our-sites/ufc/
Take it with a pinch of salt
MattParker117 - January 2, 2012
GSP is a brand now
He became that when he was wrecking punk motherfuckers
Cunny - January 2, 2012
We were just disussing this
I was just having this conversation with my MMA guru Double-A. I personally believe that the PPV model needs to go back to 6-10 per year. With the new Fox deal, if ratings maintain, the ad buys can only increase in value. But one fight per show can never happen again. It’s not fair to the advertisers. Just check the ratings drop-off after the Valasquez KO. The economy is only going to get worse unless the outsourcing of jobs ends, and I’ve been hearing grumblings from long time UFC fans for a while. Pay per views don’t have a special feeling anymore, even when the top guys are involved. Myself, I would go with only four BIG events a year, and use the networks to bring up the new talent. Either way, UFC will need to get much more aggressive in advertising to ‘outsider’ markets. Zuffa will have to remove the stick from their butt concerning Youtube, as well. If people can’t research a fighters past, and the only oppurtunity to see a fighter is to buy the UFC Channel or a PPV, they will never expand their market. Have A Nice Day!
Mr. Socko - January 2, 2012 via mobile
one fight per show was just for that test run. Dana said it before the event and has been saying so since.
Victor Rodriguez - January 2, 2012
Thanks
For clearing that up…I just got on Emperor White’s Twitter feed, must’ve missed that. Next time just put a mandible claw on me when I speak out of ignorance hahahaaa! Have A Nice Day!
Mr. Socko - January 2, 2012 via mobile
Shite. I don't like this...
Especially Zuffa selling a share of the UFC even further.
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
the sale thing is purely speculation
sure its from a very very smart guy who watches the sport closely but don’t make it more than it is.
Kid Nate - January 2, 2012
My angry bowels make no distinction to speculation.
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
I agree with him.
NTF, you and I had a convo about this in early 2011 I believe. I said then and still think that they will get while the getting is still somewhat good.
Facebook already missed their ideal IPO window, and while it might still do alright, I expect it will be far, far less than the estimates that were thrown around a year or so ago. I also expect it to plummet shortly after any IPO…
In the same vein, the Fertitta’s are still somewhat in their window of opportunity, thanks to the Fox deal, but now is the time to be looking for the exits.
The American Ronin - January 2, 2012
The numbers will be down slightly, but the sky won’t fall. There are going to be less PPVs, presumably no Brock, and losing some big names to Fox will hurt the numbers.
Phildo - January 2, 2012
their biz is hugely profitable
even at much reduced PPV numbers.
Kid Nate - January 2, 2012
I'm going to guess it will be up compared to 2011
because there will be more free cards (I think) on Fox, FX and Fuel.
Paying 110 dollars a month on ppvs sucks.
av1o3 - January 2, 2012
I think they'll more or less equal 2011
The first year of the Fox deal will tell us a lot I think. Fox / FX offer up a fresh audience who may not necessarily have been a Spike TV audience, but none the less may provide a good percentage of new fans who get hooked to the sport. Plus, Fox is going to pimp UFC for all its worth and make sure it’s cross promoted with their other sports, something Spike TV could never have done.
16 PPV’s is too much, drop it to 12 and have one once a month.
KJ Gould - January 2, 2012
The first three PPVs of the year will do terrible numbers
UFC 142 has no draws and might not even break 200k buys, 143 could probably do about 350-400k, and 144 has a non-draw headlining with an opponent whose last fight was on Facebook.
So….down. No GSP, no Lesnar, it’s up to a Silva vs. Sonnen super-resubmission and Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans for the UFC to even have a chance at being up.
SSreporters - January 2, 2012
I'm hoping 143 breaks 500K
Nick Diaz is a draw.
Kid Nate - January 2, 2012
nick diaz could be huge
but i doubt his current ability to draw
milk72 - January 2, 2012
137 just did 280k
With Diaz headlining against one of the biggest names to ever grace the sport.
How will 143 fare any better? The biggest name on the card after those two is Josh Koscheck, who is fighting the barely-known Mike Pierce.
SSreporters - January 2, 2012
Primetime episodes will be on FX.
There has to be a significant crossover between Always Sunny and Nick Diaz fans.
pdl - January 2, 2012
By beating Penn the way he did, Diaz may have been giving “the rub” and become more of a draw. Also, it is for some sort of Title (interim) which could potentially entice more MMA fans to order the PPV. I don’t know how much it factors in, but it is on SuperBowl weekend as well, and there is a UFC on Primetime for Diaz vs Condit. There are definitely factors here that could increase the PPV buyrate.
chrisbboy82 - January 2, 2012
The Diaz brothers may be the most original, unique, charismatic characters in any sport today, and in any combat sport for sure.
Vegan diet following, triathlon competing, ganja smoking, don’t-give-a-fuck guys like these two need to be appreciated while they’re around.
sheikybaby - January 2, 2012
veganism is gangsta.
Victor Rodriguez - January 2, 2012
Outside
Of the Vegan lifestyle, which I don’t know anything about, I wholeheartedly agree! Love me some Diaz Brothers! Nick vs Paul Daley made a fan outta me!
Mr. Socko - January 2, 2012 via mobile
Here's MMA Payout's summary of S&P's latest credit report on Zuffa
As for that Loan Mark Cuban bought Zuffa bonds in 2009 and I assume that loan was replaced at least partially by bond debt. Although if Zuffa got the bond issue done at less than 10% it would be a miracle.
MattParker117 - January 2, 2012
I think
The key term in there is “volatility”. The UFC can make solid predictions about how PPV events are going to perform, but all it takes is one training camp injury and suddenly they’re looking at half a million buys less than they were expecting (dos Santos-Carwin, for example). If the UFC wants to be a real sport, and it sounds like they do, then that means going to a more stable business model.
Patrick Wyman - January 2, 2012
10%?
They are rated BB, no BB corporate bond is doing 10% yields.
joker24 - January 2, 2012
$50 mil credit facility sounds reasonable
but what the hell is up with a $425 loan? What is that for possibly?
closetasfan - January 2, 2012
That was not to fund operations, but almost entirely to make huge dividend payments to ownership. Part of my reasoning for thinking they will likely be cashing out sooner rather than later.
The American Ronin - January 3, 2012
$75 million in refinacing and dividends
$325 million in expansion costs
Is how it breaks down
MattParker117 - January 3, 2012
No Brock. No GSP. No BJ Penn. It doesn’t look good.
POW - January 2, 2012
BJ Penn didnt even get 300k buys on either PPV he headlined this year. Brock and GSP hurt, Penn not anymore.
bigdmmafan - January 2, 2012
BJ stopped being a draw two years ago
SSreporters - January 2, 2012
He’s still better than just about anybody else at 155.
POW - January 2, 2012
yes
because there is no way to create new exciting stars.
let’s forget Jon Jones, Overeem, Nick Diaz and Junior Dos Santos.
Victor Rodriguez - January 2, 2012
How much did Brock v Cain sell?
Was he still a huge draw?
warren305 - January 2, 2012
too soon to tell. the buyrate estimates haven’t come out yet, and the solid numbers take another while to be filtered.
Victor Rodriguez - January 2, 2012
im not trying to troll
or hate, but i couldnt give 2 shits about these two things:
thing 1)how many ppvs sold
thing 2)what new fans might think of mma
as far as thing 1, im surprised anyone buys an event for 55-65 dollars, especially in this jacked-up economy. i certainly cant afford to, and thank god for bars that offer the fights for free.
as far as thing 2, i can never comprehend why anyone cares what comes out of DFWs mouth, or what crap some idiot fighter tweeted, or anything having to do with mmas going ‘mainstream.’ i love mma but could give 2 fucks how popular it is.
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
Not caring about PPV's is about not caring about whether or not the boss of the premier MMA promotion is in bed with yakuzas or not.
Trust me: we should care.
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
Thank you for letting us know!
Horselover Fat - January 2, 2012
anytime, man
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
Is this what Roy Nelson thinks God looks like?
menckenstein - January 2, 2012
Now that’s how I think god looks like!
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
i dont know
if you eat a burger, you kill a cow, wast like 100 gallons of water, kill some rainforest, brutalize soil and give a big middle finger to starving people around the world. but lots of people eat burgers anyway. should i really be that worried about yakuza?
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
Ever heard of PRIDE Fighting Championships?
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
of course.
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
And how do you think they went down?
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
bob sapp and wanderlei silva vs. japanese guys off the street?
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
More like allegations of ties to organized crime made their TV sponsor drop their asses.
They weren’t doing that bad until suddenly shit started tanking and they sold the org.
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
true, yet let’s not forget that the Yakuza have since then permeated virtually all forms of business in Japan. that was a sad scenario largely due to the fact that certain fighters were strong-armed into taking fights, among other things.
Victor Rodriguez - January 2, 2012
sorry u, dont mean to be a dick.
you got me curios now.
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
No need to apologize. Look above.----^
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
whats that got to do w/ppvs?
or burgers?
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
if you like watching the UFC
the success or failure of their biz model is of concern. No PPV buys = no UFCs.
Kid Nate - January 2, 2012
Mr. gay. This is serious bussiness!!
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
ill go hide in my cave then
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
That shit gives me nightmares...
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
I've been saying the ufc is gonna get prided sing the rainbow came outta da closet
liptondrift - January 2, 2012
nothing you say makes sense to me.
is that a you thing, or a me thing?
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
it's an us thing ;)
liptondrift - January 2, 2012
No wonder I don't get it either.
Your land is a strange, exotic place.
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
waste
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
Additional reasons for PPV dropoff
I agree with the other comments about PPV buy rates not being a measure of success for Zuffa. They have adequate other sources of revenue, particularly the Fox deal and international broadcast rights income, to more than offset any dropoff in their PPV gravy train.
( . Y . ) - January 2, 2012
You forgot to factor the fact that the economy is on the fucking shitter, in there.
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
The economy was shit during the PPV buy rate peak years.
( . Y . ) - January 2, 2012
But now it is in worse shit-shape than in the previous shit-state.
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
It's actually in much better shape
MS_Dos_Santos - January 2, 2012
The economy?
Um…I don’t think it is.
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
it’s not that simple. certain sectors have improved, it’s just not really being felt by most common folk like you and i.
MS_Dos_Santos’ point was that the economy has recovered somewhat in a general sense, that doesn’t mean we’re out of the shitter. it was too broad a statement.
Victor Rodriguez - January 2, 2012
This
2008 and 2009 brought great PPV numbers despite the economy heading towards a depression. The effects of that were felt throughout 2009 and 2010, at the end of which the economy has started to recover, but is still weak.
I suppose it’s debatable whether it’s in better shape now than then, depending on which indicators you want to use. I’m no economist though, just a guy who likes to see people fight each other.
MS_Dos_Santos - January 2, 2012
you sir have the best name
liptondrift - January 2, 2012
Reminds me of 'The Artist Formerly Known as Prince'
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
his reminds me of this:
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
which reminds me!
i finally met gsp!
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
shit.
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
Dude waaaat??
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
Cunny - January 2, 2012
Fuck, should have looked down
Cunny - January 2, 2012
I can't believe this is real
warren305 - January 2, 2012
Does this mean I made out with Richard Simmons?
Bolshevik - January 2, 2012
lets try this again
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
dammit! fail! i suck!
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
You are starting to worry me...
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
here we go.
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
That someone photoshopped that thing only makes it creepier...
Unabomberman - January 2, 2012
i only glanced at it briefly the first time and thought it looked pretty legit.
it would be cool if it were real.
Victor Rodriguez - January 2, 2012
The PPV model is dying
I think it was nottheface who made the point that the UFC is just trying to squeeze every last penny out of PPVs before they go the way of the dodo bird. I buy that completely; in a couple of years, I hope we’re only seeing 6-8 PPV cards per year for the really, really big fights (Jones-Rashad, Silva-Sonnen, etc.). They can’t seriously expect fans to shell out between fifty and sixty bucks to see trash like Rampage-Hammill or Rashad-Tito.
Patrick Wyman - January 2, 2012
hope youre right.
dont think its necessarily such a bad thing if ppvs die a horrible death.
gspmademegay - January 2, 2012
Oh yeah
I don’t mind ponying up a few times a year, but if I’m going to be putting that much of my disposable income out there I want it to feel like a big, meaningful fight, the kind I’m going to build a party or something around.
Patrick Wyman - January 2, 2012
Agreed
I think i’ll be like boxing. Of course Mayweather and Pacquiao are going to be on PPV, but the lesser names are going to be on television.
discoandherpes - January 2, 2012
That’s a really apt comparison.
Patrick Wyman - January 2, 2012
Will that really make sense though? Right now they do an average of what? 250k buys per event? If the only do 8 instead of 16, will these 8 have an average of 500k? Sure, they might make more profit from the same revenue but the live-events have also been a marketing-tool for the UFC. White has stated that many times. Especially when going to new markets. IMO drastically reducing the # of events is not in the cards anytime soon.
KGNLuc - January 2, 2012
I'm not talking about reducing the number of events
I agree completely, they’re locked into drastically increasing their presence. I just don’t think that putting unmarketable fights on PPV helps them at all, and that they’d be better served by using PPVs for that “big fight” feel.
Patrick Wyman - January 2, 2012
Same # of events and less PPV means they’d have to expand their TV deal further though. They can’t go anywhere else now that they’re exclusive to FOX I’d wager and not sure if FOX will want additional programming before seeing how things turn out.
KGNLuc - January 2, 2012
Yes. Give buyers a chance to get some paychecks in between PPVs.
discoandherpes - January 2, 2012
There are too many PPV's...
and not enough “stars.” Developing stars is pretty challenging. I think being able to monetize your product through network television (i.e. the Fox deal) is a good step.
All the non-PPV events probably do dilute the overall product. In my mind, the total number of PPV events is a bigger deal. A UFC event doesn’t scream, “I’m an exclusive, must have product,” when there are 15 others coming down the pipeline in the next 12 months. You can understand why someone doesn’t pay for every one. Let’s be honest; if you happen to miss an event, it’s not the end of the world. When events aren’t perceived to be important then you’re more likely to see people save their $45.
It’s hard to be in both “free TV” and the PPV business. The UFC has to find a balance or pick one or the other. My inclination would be to cut back the number of PPV’s if possible. I’d like to see them put one or two big cards a year, like a quality numbered UFC, on Fox just to give people a taste of what they’re missing. But I think you’ve got to rein in the number PPV’s. Fans and their pocket books are weary.
Cannon Jacques - January 2, 2012
I would take guys who have had great to good success on PPV (GSP, Silva, Jones), and put with other champions who aren’t huge stars (Edgar, Aldo, Cruz, and JDS). You’ll have the hardcore be more willing to buy because of the importance of the card, and GSP, Silva, and Jones can add to the casual appeal because quite frankly they do well on PPV.
Also put more title fights on free television. If Maynard vs. Edgar were on Fox both Maynard and Edgar would have been much bigger than they are now. It doesn’t hurt the UFC, because Edgar isn’t at this point a big PPV star (neither is Maynard). Guys like Edgar and Aldo will do well on television and be an added bonus when they’re fighting on PPV. Alternating them between these rolls will not only bolster existing PPVs and television ratings, but they have an opportunity to become stars in their own right.
And fortunately for the UFC, their reputation for putting on good, relevant cards isn’t going to lower the value on a guy who fought on free television and is fighting on PPV.
discoandherpes - January 2, 2012
Also, putting contenders who have a strong possibility of getting a title shot on TV helps anyway. They can get people to invest in a challenger the way that boxing seemingly fails to do.
discoandherpes - January 2, 2012
so true.
if either of the two fights Maynard and Edgar had in 2011 were on free TV, i think it would boost the division in it’s entirety. Frankie Edgar could be close to being a household name if that had happened.
Victor Rodriguez - January 2, 2012
The sad truth is, Edgar is a little guy who is respectful and looks nothing like a killing machine. You could have Frankie Edgar marathons on Fox for a week and people still will not care for him as much as for Overeem. IMO the UFC is doing the right thing, trying to put the fighters in the spotlight that have a real shot at becoming stars like Rashad, Sonnen, Overeem or people that have the potential to capture the interest of new demographics such as Munoz or Velasquez.
KGNLuc - January 2, 2012
i dunno.
i see your point, yet wouldn’t that be a bonus? why not show off a guy that is a consummate professional, well educated and a sharp dresser? the same could be said for Rashad, although since he’s a bigger guy and has a certain level of swagger looks more like what the average American considers a pro athlete to look like. showing a quiet humble little dude shows a level of depth and diversity in the roster, and putting him on a larger scale in either one of those monstrous comeback fights could only be good for him and the UFC. Edgar could very well be a star, and that vicious end of the third Maynard fight would shine a light on the lower weight classes that would convert a lot of casual fans and outsiders.
Victor Rodriguez - January 2, 2012
For me, personally, I totally agree. For the masses, I think it would be very hard to build up Edgar. Remember that in order to become a star he has to win people over who have never seen his fights or just short clips of them when they see him in talk-shows and other PR ops. If they throw themselves behind Edgar, could they move his populatrity up? Sure. But why spent your money on him when building a star with more promising “material” is hard enough? Why handicap yourself with a LW like Edgar who doesn’t even represent a desirable demographic?
KGNLuc - January 2, 2012
i guess that depends what you call a ‘desirable demographic’. if you’re referring to African-Americans and Hispanics, that’s a different story and it goes beyond having Jones or Velasquez holding a belt. it starts with making inroads with these communities, advertising on networks and websites that cater specifically to these demographics [TVOne, Univision], etc. just put Edgar everywhere; Tonight Show, CNN morning shows, ESPN, all that shit. a brand is built with exposure. show the highlights of his gutsy performances and ask that he elevate the sport and his division. it can be done with time and patience.
Victor Rodriguez - January 2, 2012
Just throwing this out there.
Edgar might not have the most staying power. Here we’ve got a guy, undersized in a ridiculously stacked division, and he got fucked up at the start of his last two fights.
Promoting Jones practically guarantees a return on the investment.
Bolshevik - January 3, 2012
Those are two fights, and the rest of his career he has taken very little punishment.
And quite frankly, Edgar probably has the best chance of being the next two division champ in the UFC.
discoandherpes - January 3, 2012
Again: Why not put that money into people who are easier to market in the first place? “Because Edgar deserves it” will not raise many eyebrows in the marketing-meeting.
KGNLuc - January 3, 2012
I think Frankie could be a huge star
The Kid from the Jersey Shore. Who happens to be a good guy and a great fighter.
warren305 - January 2, 2012
Just show anyone the Gray Maynard fights. If they aren’t impressed by Edgar, shoot them, because they don’t have pulses and are zombies. Zombies are bad, m’kay?
discoandherpes - January 2, 2012
16 PPVs a year and 12 of them have one good fight on them.
It’s not rocket science.
exsanguinator - January 2, 2012
Everyone needs to stop acting like the sky is falling
PPV is a limited model. What’s on PPV? Only the biggest of the boxing fights, some wrestling, and 90% of it is porn.
What we’re going to see is the same thing that boxing is doing if the UFC is smart. Use television to build up stars, but guys on co-main events with big superstars, and have only the biggest fights be on PPV. The buyrates will go up if they’re less PPVs and the quality of the PPV increases. Now that they have a huge platform like Fox to expose themselves to a new audience, I think the UFC will be fine.
Even though PPV is historically the barometer for success regarding the UFC, that is going to be less and less the case. We live in a new generation where entertainment is essentially free on the internet, and sports is becoming biggest commodity in live television. PPV meaning less can only help the fans. It means that we’ll probably get more good fights on free television, and ultimately get more stacked PPVs.
Even in an atmosphere with subpar UFC PPV cards, average UFC PPVs are far superior to boxing PPVs. Think about how many great UFC events there were this year.
discoandherpes - January 2, 2012
Also I typed that out very quickly, so there are tons of grammar and spelling mistakes.
My bad.
discoandherpes - January 2, 2012
well, you got porn right. we can live with any other errors in there.
Victor Rodriguez - January 2, 2012
Dead on
Especially as far as PPV buys as the barometer of success. It’ll be live TV deals, and not just in the US — the deal with Rede Globo in Brazil is huge, but it hasn’t received a whole lot of attention in terms of thinking about what the UFC’s done over the last year.
Patrick Wyman - January 2, 2012
Yeah. In other parts of the world where PPV isn’t viable, network television deals are going to be a big source of business.
Also growing MMA in these countries is only going to get more athletes into the sport.
discoandherpes - January 2, 2012
How many. We
Tim Bernier - January 2, 2012 via mobile
God damn.
Tim Bernier - January 2, 2012 via mobile
Gold
warren305 - January 2, 2012
They're always talking about worldwide expansion..
..yet they’ll never expand worldwide relying on a PPV model.
Outside of the US, PPV is mostly unheard of. Yet sports still manage to be profitable.
They know that PPV doesn’t work in places like Brazil.
The UFC won’t sink with reduced PPV, they know they need alternative revenue streams. Zuffa seems to find ways to adapt, and the presumption that they’re extremely rigid is odd and doesn’t seem to be based on anything we’ve seen in the past.
UncleMax - January 2, 2012
sponsorship $ will be key in the future business of the UFC
more shows could be free, which sounds good to me
dajulzta - January 2, 2012 via Android app
I agree with
Nate. There will be an emergence of new stars but long term I think the UFC will go public.
Coeman - January 2, 2012
Give us a megafight. Any Megafight and numbers will be amazing. As Luke said in his video if there's gonna be one it has to happen this year
Desmoglein - January 2, 2012
one including Anderson Silva that is
Desmoglein - January 2, 2012
Also agree that Nick Diaz and Alistair Overeem could be major stars. They're already my 2 favorite MMA fighters/personalities
Desmoglein - January 2, 2012
Both Diaz brothers actually have the potential to be stars.
discoandherpes - January 2, 2012
I just want to clarify to all MMA writers that Zuffa having massive amounts of debt doesn’t mean they couldn’t immediately pay it all off. Companies purposefully keep large debts on the books for tax purposes.
Bolshevik - January 2, 2012
+1
LenBarson - January 3, 2012
Guida vs. Bendo
That fight NEEDED to be aired. Getting that fight aired somehow should have been a priority. Everyone could see from a mile away that it was going to be a barnburner. And not only that, but a barnburner for a title shot. I’m not even saying that it had to be on FOX, but put casual fans in position to watch it. A Facebook stream just isn’t god enough. Sure, us hardcores were treated to a fight that was every bit as good as we were expecting it to be, but we’re going to watch all the fights we can anyway, and don’t need to be sold on watching a card or not. (Holy rambling sentence Batman!)
I have to think that casual fans who would have watched it would’ve been much more inclined to find the UFC: Japan PPV in Feb.
LenBarson - January 3, 2012
Drop the price to $30 per event, and I’m buying every single one of them. At $60, I’ll buy maybe one per year, and that’s it. It’s pretty simple. PPV’s are too expensive, especially when cards are mostly made up of one prime match-up and a bunch of nice/decent fights.
Shnak - January 3, 2012
Casual Fan anecdotes
Anecdotal evidence here…
My friends that are “casual UFC fans” are less interested in UFC now than they were 2 or 3 years ago. One friend is now so bored w/ UFC he only cares when Anderson Silva or Brock is fighting, so do the math there. Other people I know who used to catch alot of events at BW3 (sports bar restaurant) rarely go at all anymore.
UFC may have peaked much like World Series of Poker peaked in 2006 or 2007. There’s still a market for it, there just needs to be a new way to drive fans to the sport. Maybe UFC on FOX will be that shot in the arm the UFC brand needs.
The TV commercials for UFC pay per views seem pretty generic now, and they could use a new format. The UFC 142 Aldo/Mendes commerical is just a bunch of guys celebrating with their arms after winning a fight, wtf?
Ben Bauman - January 3, 2012
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