SB Nation - Login for mobile commenting

Bloody Elbow

UFC 145: Jon Jones Opens As Massive Favorite Over Rashad Evans

Photo

After Rashad Evans beat Phil Davis at UFC on Fox 2, he sat at the post-fight press conference fielding questions about his upcoming bout with rival Jon Jones, currently scheduled as the main event of UFC 145 in Atlanta on April 21st. In one of the answers, he stated that he'd "probably be a huge underdog" going into the bout. Well, he was right about that. Bookmaker was the first site to drop a betting line for Jones vs. Evans, and it's pretty lopsided:

BestFightOdds.com

Honestly, it rarely gets wider than that for a UFC bout, especially a championship bout. Generally when seemingly-competitive title bouts open with lines like this (such has Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua 1 at UFC 104), there's a bunch of early betting on the underdog. Will that happen here? I'm not sure, but I'd lean towards no. Depsite Evans' dominant win over Davis, Jones is probably the most hyped man in the sport right now and has absolutely torn through the division thus far.

Will things be different for Jones when he's in there with a former training partner? And In quite possibly the first "personal" bout of his career? We'll find out on April 21st. For now though, the oddsmakers are certainly leaning in Jon's direction.

SBN coverage of UFC 145

1 recs  |  135 comments

Comments

I remember thinking that after the Rampage fight he wouldn't be closer than -600 against anyone

The Machida fight kinda disproved that, but it seems like I was just a fight early. Jones wont get closer than that until he moves up to HW or loses.

The only chance that Rashad has is the psychological game.

If what he says is true, that Jones looked up to him, then it could be a St. Pierre / Hughes 1 sort of thing. But I think that advantage was only there if they had fought when they originally were supposed to. Now that Jones has run through some of the best in the division and finished them all, chances are Rashad is F.U.C.K.E.D.

what does that stand for?

Friendship Undone… Can’t Keep Evans Down?

Yeah, SchruteBoxe’s is better…

I wonder if the line would be much different for a Jones-Henderson match…

It would be about the same or higher for Jones.
Nope,

I don’t think it’d be even but it would be a lot closer than this.

damn

Hmmmm 20 bucks on Rashad for the hell of it.

Definitely going to include that in a parlay (add in a couple locks…personally, I think Rashad’s chances are better than 20%, given his time training, speed, and wrestling).

Both Rashad and Jones had trouble with Machida’s speed moving in and out of range. They both were beaten to the punch about the same in their respective fights with Machida, the only difference is that Jones was able to stall and change game plans in the 2nd round. I don’t think Rashad has much of a speed advantage against Jones. At least I don’t think he is fast enough to overcome Jones’ reach advantage to beat him to the punch like Lyoto did.

Jones had trouble for less than one round

Evans got KTFO’d.

Technically, it was more than 1 round before the momentum started to turn. Machida started off the first minute of the 2nd round well also.

exactly...that's the point of gambling

you pick the underdog who has some kind of value. In MMA anything can happen and the fact that Evans has trained with JJ (yes I know an earlier version of JJ) gives him some inside knowledge.

Now people that are betting on JJ at -600 are crazy. Laying 600 bucks to win 100 = ridiculous. Betting 100 at +400 for Evans is not so crazy. Evans has fought every top 205 and his resume is pretty much unmatched. Not saying he’s going to win but the odds are shocking.

how much do you win if you put $100 on evans?
and HE wins?
400 dollaz
what i could do with $400 dollaz!!!
or what you could do with 100a dollars

By not wasting it like that

Ya at least 400

depending on what kind of odds.

thats like a coke and some chili cheese fries at disneyland!

that’s a Philadelphia hooker with 80% of her teeth left.

That's like 366 Mcdoubles

that’s like 8,000 nickels!

Unmatched? He went to a razor thin decision with Bisping, got housedby Machida, and needed a fence grab penalty to get a draw with Tito. I don’t think unmatched means what you think it means.

Damn straight.

BEST FRIEND, I CAN'T SEE THE IMAGE YOU POSTED BECAUSE I AM AT WORK AND THEY FILTER PHOTO SHARING LINKS

BUT I BET IT’S PRETTY FANTASTIC.

OH IT'S PRETTY FANTASTIC ALRIGHT.

IT IS NEIL PATRICK HARRIS DANCING WITH ELMO.

YOU MEAN DOOGIE HOWSER, M.D. AND THE RED PUPPET CHARACTER FROM TELEVISION?

/CHORTLE

YES THAT IS WHAT I MEAN, ROFLCOPTERTASTIC.

WOW, HOW GREAT THAT MUST BE.

I CAN’T WAIT TO GO HOME AND VIEW THE MOVING IMAGES YOU’VE DESCRIBED.

I AM HOME, BUT I UNDERSTAND YOUR LACK OF PATIENCE.
I HAVE NOTHING MEANINGFUL TO ADD TO THIS!

IT REALLY LOOKED LIKE FUN, THOUGH. AND GUESS WHAT? IT TOTALLY WAS!!

I TYPE IN ALL CAPS FOR THOSE WHO CAN NOT SEE WELL.

I’ll put $ 50 on Rashad at that line. No fighter is invincible, and Rashad is a live dog, imo. He has good power and speed and usually comes into fights with a smart gameplan. Jones should be the favorite, and I can see him winning this fight more often than not, but I like Evans enough to make a small wager on him.

rashad

has a great chance he has better hands and is much quicker imo

and has he ha very explosive wrestling

jones is very unpredictable tho

Last time I saw a line this lopsided was in BJ vs Frankie....-700 I believe
I made a fuck ton of money off of that fight
If only I was a betting man

Rashad winning will just have to be satisfaction enough.

I will throw 50$ at it, even though it does seem like money down the drain.

its not throwing money down the drain...that's how you gamble in mma

Werdum over Fedor, Henderson over Fedor, Antonio Silva vs. Fedor, Frankie Edgar over Sherk, Edgar over Penn, Sherk over GSP

sh!t happens in MMA

did sherk beat gsp?
my bad Serra

two stumpy guys..it happens

After the performance Rashad put on against Davis, those numbers look right

There will be a lot of early betting on Rashad and the lines will move a bit closer to each other, but oddsmakers are expecting Jones to win regardless. Even if Rashad was simply playing it safe so as not to get injured, Jones still beats him at striking and probably has a slight edge in the grappling department.

maybe Phil is just hard to finish
Did you see the fight?
Who would you guys say is more comfortable on their feet?
not mark coleman.

rashad is a bit quicker and has better boxing but jones has a more varied attack like kicks and knees

Rashad has knock out power in his hands.

If he can land one of them bombs on Jon Jones’s chin, then he can definitely put Jones to sleep.

I also think that he holds a huge psychological advantage over Jones. This could really affect how Jones fights.

Rashad isn't that durable though

So that could be an issue for him. Remember that Jones did drop Machida. It’s not like Rashad is Rampage or Shogun with a spectacular chin.

Rashad and knockout power don't belong in the same sentence.

Who has he knocked out besides Liddell who’s chin was already done and Forrest who never had a chin.

Rashad does have some power, he has 5 T/KO’s in the UFC. That bomb that he hit Chuck with would have KO’d most fighters. That said, I don’t see him connecting on Jones with that. Getting in and out against Jones, he won’t be able to plant his feet and swing for the fences.

Liddell had only been KO'd by Rampage before that fight

His chin was not done. Actually it might have been Rashad that did for it.

That's what you get, Rashad!

That’s what you get for ruining his special night!

What were the odds against Rampage and Machida initially?

This gap is gonna close fast.

Rashad was 6/45 in power shots against Davis from striking distance

According to Fight Metric.

Imagine him trying to hit Jones.

If the Rashad that fought Davis shows up against Jones, he’s getting picked apart from range. I used to think Rashad probably had an advantage striking, but not so much anymore. Jones is fantastic at not getting hit. I think he can trip takedown anyone, so I bet he uses his range against Rashad until he wants to clinch, takes him down and messes him up.

+400

Seems so high on the face of it, but does anybody really think Rashad can win this fight 20% of the time? Rashad’s inability to land on Davis at distance can’t make us real confident about his chances of doing so against Jones.

putting a hundred on rashad

first time i put money on a fighter

First time you'll lose money on a fighter too
nah itll be the first time i enjoy the butt hurt rashad is going to dish to his haters and make money out if it.
I've seen people say they're going to bet on him

But I think you’re the first who actually expects him to win.

So you won't mind when we point and laugh after Rashad gets wrecked?
I've been reading this same bullshit here for 2 years + now.

Bader was gonna KO Jones.
Rua was… it was gonna be so bad people were posting a pic of a derailed train with Jones’ face on it, kicked off the tracks by Rua. He was going to murder Jones.
Jackson was going to thunderpunch Jones into oblivion.
Lyoto was going to KO him.

Now Evans….

Some of you are slooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow.

Gee

thanks for generalizing, first time im betting against Jones too.

Said he’d squash The Janitor + Bader, Hellbow Shogun 6 feet under, Squash page and beat Lyoto.

if im putting money on a fighter i sure as hell would rather it be rashad

after bader nobody believed any of these things

they just wanted them to happen because they don’t like jones

Well, if there is less than an 80% chance of that, it’s a good bet.

I am going to put money on Jones just to push the line even further toward where it should be...

-1400.

That’s Tatsuya Mizuno-Mousasi territory.

There is a reason Jones was ducking Rashad...

You all would do well to remember that.

AHAHA you're funny
Rashart better show up

looking better than he did Saturday or he is in trouble. Not that he looked bad Saturday, but he looked far from what it is going to take to beat Bones.

Rashart?

Is that like doing a shart so bad it gives you a rash?

lol
Rashad gassed early

Davis had nothing for him, other than to sap his energy grappling. Rashad should have knocked that guy out. With that said, he did look physically very strong and I can see the fight with Bones looking similar. If Jon doesn’t hurt him bad early, a la Shogun, with a big technique. Best case scenario

This is honestly the first time I've ever hated both fighters.

It’s a very strange feeling. I mean of course I’ve seen fights caring little who wins, but I seriously hate both of these dudes.

Hate their personas?

Or hate them as fighters? Because I’m a big fan of Jon Jones the fighter. He is so brutal. Rashad the fighter has his moments, but is hit or miss as an exciting performer.

I would have posted odds like that pre-Rashad’s handling of Davis. He looked good, and I think he’ll surprise everyone ala Bisping. Maybe he won’t win, but I do think the fight will be close (barring a flash knockout).

Yeah, I don't think Rashad will get blown out,

and I think he should have his moments.

Jon is pouting. =(
wowww

i can’t believe everyone on here saying rashad has NO chance of winning this…no other opponent knows jones tendencies better than rashad from when they trained together, rashad is one of the quickest lightweights in the division, he has a friggin 22-1-1 record!!! Havin said that…i still thinks Jones is gna win lol but i will throw money on Rashad because this is what gambling is all about…Jones is predictable on the feet now watch theRampage and Machida Fights, only thing is if Jones takes him down and hellbows him, it’ll be a quick night

You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Bloody Elbow to post a comment.