Luke Rockhold vs Keith Jardine
Brent Brookhouse: Jardine has a lot of question marks heading into the fight. Given that we’ve never seen him at middleweight and how lackluster his career has been over the past few years this is a fairly easy pick. Yes, Jardine can make things awkward and has a difficult style to figure out, but this is a five round fight where he’s going to eventually get hurt and finished. Luke Rockhold by TKO, round 3.
Leland Roling: Jardine is a tough man to beat, but Rockhold should have this on lockdown, especially if he can bring this fight to the ground. Luke Rockhold via decision.
T.P. Grant: This match up left my scratching my head. Jardine, while an able and respected fighter, has never made the cut to 185 lbs in his MMA career. Luke Rockhold is coming off an impressive win over ‘Jacare’, the biggest of his career. I don’t think there is anything Jardine can really do to Rockhold that is going to slow him down for long and I expect the cut to hit Jardine hard. Rockhold takes firm control of this fight when it moves to championship rounds. Luke Rockhold via Decision.
Fraser Coffeen: Let it be said that I suck at Strikeforce predictions. I think it’s a combination of there being a lot of untested fighters, plus fighters with some real down time between fights, so there end up being too many variables, and I get all muddled. Case in point: this fight. Jardine’s first time at 185, plus he’s getting up there in years, plus Rockhold only has 1 fight in the last 2 years. See what I mean? I think the key to beating Jardine is to rush him and knock him out, which Rockhold won’t do. Still, the champ has enough striking skill to outpoint Jardine. I think. But don’t rule an upset out here. Luke Rockhold by KO, round 3
Tim Burke - I actually figured Jardine might have a shot here, until the press conference yesterday. Rockhold is still inexperienced and doesn’t have a lot of power in his hands, which is Jardine’s obvious weakness. I figured Rockhold definitely held the edge, but Jardine didn’t deserve to be a 4-1 dog. But at the PC yesterday, he said the cut was tough and he was still "big" less than 24 hours before weigh-ins. That’s going to be a draining cut even if he makes it, and I’m completely behind Luke now. I still can’t see a finish though. Luke Rockhold by decision.
David Castillo: Despite all the hate being thrown Jardine’s way, I’ve gotta be the one to put on the stupid cap and say that I think Rockhold will have some trouble. I think it was Subo who brought up on fight linker’s podcast how uinique Jardine’s ability is to drag opponents down to his level and make everyone in the cage look like crap. Which is true when Jardine is not being floored by a left hook. I don’t know if that principle will hold here, as Rockhold doesn’t have a lights out left hook, but he is the better fighter and I think his "unorthodox" striking will be the difference in contrast to Keith’s not-unorthodox but sloppy, awkward striking. Luke Rockhold by TKO, round 4.
Dallas Winston: Very tempted to take Jardine here. The drop in weight will improve his strength, which might help him in the clinch and takedown departments, and he'll lose a little quickness, which was never a key asset for him. Rockhold's win over Jacare was impressive but Jardine is a better striker and wrestler. Screw it. I'll go all Castillo-like here and play devil's advocate. Keith Jardine by decision.
Staff Picking Rockhold: Leland, Grant, Brookhouse, Fraser, Tim, Gould, David, Roth
Staff Picking Jardine: Dallas
Robbie Lawler vs Adlan Amagov
Brent Brookhouse: I like Amagov a lot. He’s got very good technique for MMA striking and is actually exactly the right kind of guy to pick Lawler apart. Robbie has the chance for a one shot KO and you can never write him off, but I think he loses all three rounds here. Adlan Amagov by decision.
Leland Roling: I’m not sold that Robbie Lawler walks through Amagov. Sure, Robbie possesses a brutal one-punch style of fighting, but I still believe Melvin Manhoef wrote the blueprint for strikers. Maintain distance and batter Lawler’s base. Amagov can do that with precision. The question is whether he can avoid Lawler’s power to start and avoid leaning in too far later in the fight. I’m not convinced he can win, but I believe he’s a surprisingly good bettor’s pick. Robbie Lawler via TKO
T.P. Grant: Two strikes going into cage, Lawler wants to brawl and Amagov wants to box. Lawler’s camp has been adamant saying that his recent diagnosis with asthma will make all the difference with Lawler’s cardio problems. I still question how Lawler trains, he is infamous for skipping sparring sessions and preferring to lift weights rather than work on skills or cardio. I think Amagov stays on the outside, survives the early rounds and drags Lawler into deep water. Adlan Amagov via TKO, Round 3
Fraser Coffeen: Lawler’s loss to Tim Kennedy looms heavy in my mind. Though only 29, he’s an 11 year veteran, and those years are catching up with him. Lawler grew more patient in his fantastic post-UFC run, but as of late, he seems to be moving back towards that one punch KO style he used to employ, and not with great results. I think he relies on the Hail Mary here. And I think it fails him. Adlan Amagov via KO, round 1
Tim Burke - If Robbie Lawler could remember that he used to be a wrestler, he’d probably be able to take this without a ton of difficulty (despite Amagov’s improvements on the floor). But he’s purely a standnbanger now, and I don’t think that’s going to fly with a more technical striker like Amagov. He’s not throwing the hail mary in this one. Adlan Amagov by decision
David Castillo: Surprised by the amount love for a completely unknown Amagov. He is a technical striker, but I think of him as an incredibly poor man’s version of Mamed Khalidov. And he gets way too loose with some of the more "cute" tactics of his on the feet (like the roundhouse kick, which he seems to love). Inexperienced, and unrefined, I think Lawler catches him at some point. Robbie Lawler by TKO, round 2.
Dallas Winston: Considering how badly Lawler struggled with the two best kickboxers he's faced in Spratt and Manhoef, I agree that Amagov is a risky match up for him. Plus, his lack of killer instinct after fending off Kennedy's takedowns is not encouraging. Regardless, it's hard to pick against a veteran striker when facing an inexperienced newcomer who will want to stand. Robbie Lawler by TKO.
Staff Picking Lawler: Leland, David, Roth, Dallas
Staff Picking Amagov: Grant, Brookhouse, Fraser, Tim, Gould
Muhammed Lawal vs Lorenz Larkin
Brent Brookhouse: I hate this fight. This is where the lack of depth in Strikeforce hurts them and their ability to bring along fighters correctly. I’m a huge fan of Larkin, but he’s not ready for Mo yet. That was made pretty clear in struggling in his win against "The Slim Shady of MMA" Nick Rossborough. Larkin is a lot of fun to watch but he has too many holes in his wrestling game and, as much as it pains me to say this, Lawal will exploit those badly. Muhammed Lawal by decision.
Leland Roling: Similar to the Mein vs. Woodley showdown, it’s a high-flying striker vs. wrestler battle that will likely hit the ground quickly. I think Larkin has a decent chance at catching Lawal with something crazy in the opening exchanges, but it’s difficult for a fighter who relies heavily on kicks to maintain his legs against a world class wrestler. Lawal shoots, gets a takedown, and batters Larkin to a victory. Muhammed Lawal via decision.
T.P. Grant: Gian Villante was able to take down Larkin without much effort, I think Lawal is going to have a field day with Larkin. The only way I think Larkin is able to stay competitive in this fight is if we see the see Lawal that wanted to box and showboat against Feijao instead of wrestle. And even then I think Larkin would have to get lucky to notch a win. Muhammed Lawal via Decision.
Tim Burke - See above re: Mo’s wrestling. The only difference to me is that I don’t see Mo being tentative on the ground like he was against Mousasi. I think he’s going to get a GnP finish. Muhammed Lawal by TKO.
David Castillo: Easy pick. If Larkin had more power, I might be inclined to consider him for an upset pick, but he doesn’t, so I can’t. Even so, Lawal has a pretty sturdy beard, and so I don’t expect him to get hurt at any point. It took Feijao a hurricane of strikes to finally put Mo down, and besides, Larkin won’t be able to avoid the takedowns. At all. Because I think Lawal is a student of the game, and is an underrated grappler, I see him passing guard and pounding Larkin out. I predict it’ll be the most dominating performance of the night, actually. Muhammed Lawal by Rear Naked Choke, round 2.
Dallas Winston: Loves me some Larkin and think his striking is elite and the most interesting conglomeration in MMA. Even if he discards the flashy kicks, his boxing is still solid. However, Mo is not only a huge step up in competition, but a poisonous style.
King Mo by decision.
Staff Picking Lawal: Leland, Grant, Brookhouse, Fraser, Tim, Gould, David, Roth, Dallas
Staff Picking Larkin:
Tyron Woodley vs Jordan Mein
Brent Brookhouse: Mein is a good fighter but Jason High already showed how to take the decision against him. Woodley is very good at what needs to be done to get the win here. Tyron Woodley by decision.
Leland Roling: It’s hard not to like Jordan Mein. He’s exciting to watch and takes the risks necessary to win. But Woodley’s wrestling will take full advantage of that aggressiveness, plowing Mein into the canvas and controlling him from the top. Tyron Woodley via decision.
T.P. Grant: I’m going to side with Brookhouse and Rolling here. Wooldey’s wrestling is just too good for Mein. Crazier things have happened than Mein knocking out Woodley, but I don’t see it happening. Tyorn Woodley via decision.
Tim Burke - While I do think that Tyron Woodley is an excellent wrestler, people are putting way too much stock into the Mein loss to Jason High. That was a closer fight than people seem to think, and it was 16 months ago. Mein’s takedown defense has improved a lot since then, and I still feel that Woodley doesn’t take punches all that well. Mein at +280 is a joke, this a close fight. GO CANADA! Jordan Mein by TKO.
David Castillo: Mein has picked up some good wins, but I wasn’t too impressed. He beat a Zaromskis that was totally uninterested, and Santos is just not a good fighter at this weight (or any weight for that matter). Even if Woodley decides to stand and bang, I like his chances. Tyron Woodley by decision.
Dallas Winston: The choice for Woodley is obvious. Too obvious. Every shred of logic points to this being a carbon copy of his fights with Semtex and Saffiedine. I am illogical.
Jordan Mein by TKO.
Staff Picking Woodley: Leland, Brookhouse, Fraser, Gould, David, Grant, Roth
Staff Picking Mein: Tim, Dallas
Tarec Saffiedine vs Tyler Stinson
Brent Brookhouse: Stinson’s reach may be a problem but I still like Saffiedine to get inside and outwork him to take two of the three rounds. Tarec Saffiedine by decision.
Leland Roling: At a glance, Saffiedine is the clear cut favorite in this match-up. He has the punching prowess to get the job done standing, and he possesses enough credible wrestling skill to maintain his feet or control from the top. There is a chance that won’t work against Stinson. At 6’3" tall, Stinson has a 6" height advantage on top of proven knockout power. His lone crutch is on the ground, and Tarec hasn’t been submitting opponents left and right. This could get interesting, possibly an upset in the works. Tarec Saffiedine via decision.
Tim Burke - I don’t even know why Stinson got this fight, to be honest. Quinn Mulhern or Jason High would have been much better tests for the Sponge. I guess 15 second KO’s will do that for you. It’ll probably be exciting, which is a good way to start a card. But Saffiedine will expose a lot of the holes in Stinson’s standup game, despite the height/reach advantage. Tarec Saffiedine by decision.
David Castillo: I could see this being a slugfest early ,and Stinson should catch Saffiedine early, who might be unsuspecting, but after that it’s all Tarec. He’s more technical, and more polished. Tarec Saffiedine by decision.
T.P. Grant: With everyone and their brother picking Saffiedine it seems crazy to pick Stinson. Well, challenge accepted. The huge height difference I think will give Saffiedine fits, and Stinson has legit KO power. Tyler Stinson by TKO
Dallas Winston: Stinson's gangly reach and crushing power will be tough to deal with, but Saffiedine is more polished standing, has solid defense and is actually better on the mat than he is standing. Tarec Saffiedine by submission.
Staff Picking Saffiedine: Leland, Brookhouse, Fraser, Tim, Gould, David, Roth, Dallas
Staff Picking Stinson: Grant
Jardine KOs Rockhold and fucks up the division
Calling it now.
Rob Young - January 6, 2012 via mobile
and everyone's head explodes
DK_Monster - January 6, 2012
Not mine. After Rockhold’s comments, I want Jardine to smash him.
MicahtheCynic - January 6, 2012
What’d he say?
Robert V-U - January 6, 2012
Brock Lesnar “wasn’t a real fighter” or some such bullshit. It came across as him being jealous of Brock’s success, considering Rockhold will probably never shine outside of Strikeforce.
MicahtheCynic - January 6, 2012
I dunno
Luke’s a bad man and he’s only getting better.
I’d take him over Bisping right now.
TheFilt - January 6, 2012
I say Bisping wins 8/12 times. So, 80%.
MicahtheCynic - January 6, 2012
Nice one
TheFilt - January 6, 2012
I think Luke is a great prospect (and he’s from where I was born, so that’s dope), but Bisping is seriously good, I think Bisping wins most fights except the top 5 of the division
Robert V-U - January 6, 2012
That’s kinda fair though, in the sense that after he lost the belt he really seemed to fold, like he stopped showing up to fights to brutalize his opponents and just folded once he realized winning wouldn’t be easy
Robert V-U - January 6, 2012
No I'd say more like this
Rob Young - January 6, 2012
i will say he wont make weight
they will fight at catch weight and jardine will win
elmojo - January 7, 2012
Nobody picking the Dean????
I’m shocked.
Kid Kimura - January 6, 2012
And Dallas picks the Dean...
after the fact.
Kid Kimura - January 6, 2012
Your post inspired it
Kinda.
Dallas Winston - January 6, 2012
predictions
Rockhold via 4th round submission
Robbie Lawler via 1st round judo-chop fodder KO
Mo via 3rd round submission
T-wood via UD
Tarec via UD
Robert V-U - January 6, 2012
-I think Jardine wins some rounds by taking it to Rockhold and testing him on the feet. Then the weight cut is just too much for a 5 round fight and he fades directly into a Rockhold RNC. It’s going to be a grueling and slow sequence at the end of this fight
-Robbie only needed Melvin to leave him a single opening. Amagov throws with reckless intention, and leaves many more openings than Manhoef, this is Robbie’s fight to lose
-After two close rounds on the feet with Larkin throwing flashy strikes and Mo boxing, Mo drops him in the 3rd and GnPs into a submission opening. Larkin’s striking is brilliant, but his defense relies on mostly headmovement (which he is great at), but Mo is gonna be able to bring this into the clinch and land consistently throughout the fight
-T-wood is not going to want to stand with Mein, good thing he can wrestle because he won’t having any trouble keeping this on the floor
-Tarec looks impressive in landing a lot, but fights too conservatively to put a real hurting on Stinson to finish this fight
Robert V-U - January 6, 2012
Pulling For Lawler and King Mo
main event is interesting
Green Naugahyde - January 6, 2012
Rockhold
Amagov
King Mo
Woodley
Saffiedine
dynamitelungs - January 6, 2012
Jardine in a title match proves how subpar strikeforce is. It’s almost like its intentional.
evenflow10 - January 6, 2012 via mobile
Why would it be "subpar"?
Keith loses a few to the absolute elite at 205 and people act like he’s a can.
Dallas Winston - January 6, 2012
In fairness
Keith has lost to Matt Hamill, Trevor Prangley, Stephen Bonnar and Houston Alexander.
TheFilt - January 6, 2012
Nothing subpar about that what so ever
Except maybe Alexander, which was the same thing as Soko x Lil Nog.
He also beat a prime Liddell and smashed another former LHW champ in Forrest.
Dallas Winston - January 6, 2012
You said absolute elite at 205
Just sayin’
TheFilt - January 6, 2012
Hah
Guilty. :)
Dallas Winston - January 6, 2012
I'm like the Anderson Cooper of BE
Keeping em honest! :P
TheFilt - January 6, 2012
haha
Robert V-U - January 6, 2012
And you didn’t have anything to say about “prime Liddell”?
Day Man - January 6, 2012
And beat Brandon Vera, Chuck Liddell, Forrest Griffin
Robert V-U - January 6, 2012
Again
Context.
None of the guys I listed have ever been close to elite LHW’s. Hell, Prangley isn’t even a top 15 MW.
TheFilt - January 6, 2012
It’s pretty obvious at this point that Strikeforce doesn’t have much depth, but they still manage to put on exciting fights and help develop prospects for the big show.
Ak.Death - January 6, 2012
Poor Keith. MMA can be so brutal when you’re having a losing streak.
pornflake - January 6, 2012 via mobile
And he's not even technically on a losing streak
Although his most recent “draw” really should have been a loss.
But technically, he’s 2-0-1 in his last three fights.
Lauren J Darkbloom - January 6, 2012
Rockhold
Lawler
Mo
Woodley
Saffiedine
DK_Monster - January 6, 2012
Jardine... what a weird career
TUF finalist. Beating Chuck and Forrest… then messing up with Houston. Making Wandy look good. Eeeking out a win against Vera. Headlining with Rampage. Going 0-5. Fighting in a 3rd world hell-hole. Drawing against Mousasi…
Can he win against Rockhold and pick up his first title? I am beginning to think Jardine is Dean of "Wah?"
I’d LOVE to see him score here.It would be the biggest title upset since Matt Serra clobbered GSP.
jackbox - January 6, 2012
Jardine can't beat Alexander but he KO'ed Griffin and knocked Chuck down
I’m pretty sure he can KO anderson silva and still lose to Akiyama
DK_Monster - January 6, 2012
hahahahahahahaha
I’m still laughing at this one!
soilworker - January 6, 2012
It’s funny, at 185 he could hope for a possible rematch with Wanderlei. Wonder how that would go down.
Machiel Van - January 6, 2012
15 second flury from Wandy
Jardine lands a KO punch from under his leg and around wandy’s head on his way to the mat.
soilworker - January 6, 2012
His career has been goofy and unorthodox,
just like his style. I’ll give Keith “The Spastic Gorilla-Chimp” Jardine a chance here. I think the weight cut will be too much for him though. He said he was “big” at the press conference, which means he’ll likely have a large weight cut, and he already looked pretty depleted. His arms looked very drawn; it will be interesting to see what he looks like at the weigh-ins.
Machiel Van - January 6, 2012
LATE TO THE PARTY
Just added my picks.
Dallas Winston - January 6, 2012
Going with Jardine eh?
You brave man :)
eyeIess - January 6, 2012
More like attention-seeking
and fan-spiting. :)
Dallas Winston - January 6, 2012
THERE GOES YOUR 2012 PERCENTAGE!
Just kidding, SF doesn’t count. : )
Tim Burke - January 6, 2012
WHAT PERCENTAGE?!?!
IT EXISTS NOT!!!1
Dallas Winston - January 6, 2012
I’m not sure that fighting at MW will help in the strength department. Keith didn’t look good at the presser; in fact, he looked smaller than Rockhold, and more drawn-out at the same time . The nine year age difference and the mileage will be a factor here. Hopefully Jardine didn’t overtrain like he usually does.
Machiel Van - January 6, 2012
Actually haven't seen the presser
I was just applying my common rule of thumb that a drop in weight generally gives you a better level of comparable strength just like your quickness/agility is more equalized.
Hard to argue with your last few points though.
Dallas Winston - January 6, 2012
I didn't have the strength
to follow through with my convictions, so kudos. I don’t think the weight cut will be a factor. Keith will make the fight ugly. Besides…lest we forget how much Jacare was landing on Luke before the fight essentially got away from him. Jut saying.
David Castillo - January 6, 2012
Agreee that this fight is going to be ugly, real ugly, Rockhold via comeback submission is my pick though, which is gonna suck for Jardine if he does look good in this fight because people will only remember that he lost
Robert V-U - January 6, 2012
Keith excels at making the fight ugly
And, with all due respect to Rockhold, he beat a BJJ champ on the feet. Everyone forgets that pre-TUF Jardine was a raw wrestler with great scrambling and he’s never been submitted.
Dallas Winston - January 6, 2012
Jareden and Mein are winning.
Mein won’t get held up against the fence by Woodley
NEW-HAMPSHIRE - January 6, 2012
I hope so
couldn’t resist that +280 line on Mein, hopefully my 35 bucks turns into 100. I wouldn’t mind seeing old “Jareden” upset prettyboy Rockhold either.
Ak.Death - January 6, 2012
Mein is good and has way more experience than T wood
and who knows maybe T wood will hold him against the fence for three rounds but Mein will cut him with elbows and I think eventually submit him last round. +280 is amazing for this kid.
NEW-HAMPSHIRE - January 6, 2012
the drop in weight will improve jardines strength?
no…no……no Mr. Winston it will not. This cut will seriously cut his strength and any speed , wich was never his strength anyway. Jardine was a slow LHW, hes going to be a SLOW middleweight. His strength is his weird style and power but Luke also has a real weird style so i dont see that really helping him too much like it has so many times. This cut is also unfortunately going to make his jaw that much more fragile and on top all of that his cardio will be probably be awful. yikes.
I really dont want to see keith get hurt again. guy needs to hang em up.
bert44 - January 6, 2012
Yeah, the general strength boost is different for a 5 rounder
I think I can get away with that rule of thumb for 3 rounds even though the last portion can be a risk. It’s probably more of a detriment for 5 rounds.
I also agree about his quickness, but would add that it does play a role in exploding for TDs, which Keith is really good at.
I’m mostly just put off that everyone is dogging him. I think it’s quite harsh.
Dallas Winston - January 7, 2012
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