The line for the full UFC 143 card are now out, and there is money to be made. The main and co-main events are largely up to your own personal preferences, though Carlos Condit at +165 is a very good deal. I wouldn't normally recommend guys -200 and above unless they're locks (and the last time I did, Antonio Carvalho came up short for me), but Josh Koscheck at -240 and Renan Barao at -240 look pretty solid to me.
On the undercard, Michael Kuiper was a steal when the line first came out, and still has value now. Originally he was +225, but within a few hours he was down to +175. And I'm all over Edwin Figueroa too - come on, one Alex Cacares win doesn't convince me that he's got a future in the UFC. If you can get a Tickle Me Elmo doll at -145 against Cacares, you take that bet. A tank like Figueroa? Heck yeah!
Here's the whole card (prelims after the jump):
Feb 4th, live on pay-per-view from Las Vegas, NV:
Main Card:
Nick Diaz (26-7, 1 NC) -205 vs. Carlos Condit (27-5) +165
Roy Nelson (16-6) +120 vs. Fabricio Werdum (14-5-1) -150
Josh Koscheck (16-5) -245 vs Mike Pierce (13-4) +195
Renan Barao (27-1, 1 NC) -240 vs. Scott Jorgensen (13-4) +190
Ed Herman (19-7) -300 vs. Clifford Starks (8-0) +240
Preliminary Card:
Dustin Poirier (11-1) -450 vs. Max Holloway (4-0) +300
Alex Caceres (6-4) +115 vs. Edwin Figueroa (8-1) -145
Matt Riddle (5-3) -355 vs. Henry Martinez (8-1) +285
Matt Brown (12-11) -310 vs. Chris Cope (5-2) +250
Dan Stittgen (7-1) +210 vs. Stephen Thompson (5-0) -260
Rafael Natal (13-3-1) -215 vs. Michael Kuiper (11-0) +175
0 recs | 107 comments
I think the Poirer odds are wrong. The MMAPlayground odds are always completely stupid, these are a better idea to go with
StevenGiles - February 1, 2012
Heh, yeah…got em backwards.
Tim Burke - February 1, 2012
What’s the point of betting when the odds are so close?
RUSHoverSPIDER - February 1, 2012 via mobile
Well, you make more money on a favorite if the odds are lower.
Tim Burke - February 1, 2012
Conversely, betting on a guy who is a massive underdog (+200 or bigger) is usually a waste about 85% or more of the time
Matt Brown as a -310 favorite seems pretty, pretty high for a guy who is 13-12. Chris Cope is a TUF bum and all, but he’s worth a parlay with the more obvious picks on the card
Ben Bauman - February 1, 2012
Parlay
I got:
Short fuse
spotty Scotty
koscheck
Big country
And the 209
TheIrishLemon - February 1, 2012 via mobile
I'd drop Scotty
halitosis - February 1, 2012
Forgot to put
In favor of Pierce.
halitosis - February 1, 2012
The odds of hitting both Scotty and Nelson are really slim. I wouldn’t, although it probably has some good value.
Tim Bernier - February 1, 2012
My Reasoning
Is that Nelson is tough as shit and had good TDD hence Werdum will have trouble getting it to the ground to work his jitz and i just have always liked spotty scotty
TheIrishLemon - February 1, 2012
Roy got taken down by JDS (no wrestling background) and Frank Mir (historically bad takedowns).
Werdum wins the fight everywhere byt from his back. And he might win there too.
pdl - February 1, 2012
The devil’s advocate would say that JDS took Roy down once in the third after pounding the poop out of him for 2 rounds. And Roy had pneumonia in the Mir fight.
Tim Burke - February 1, 2012
The devil's devil's advocate
Roy Nelson was in some trouble against Mirko Cro Cop in some spots last October.
I love me some Big Country and rep him all the time in the UFC game on xbox, but Nelson is outmatched against Werdum
Ben Bauman - February 1, 2012
and..
his only recent lost was to the champ
TheIrishLemon - February 1, 2012
He lost to Mir at UFC 130.
Sweet Scientist - February 1, 2012
Besides the fact check that he lost to Mir, Roy's best career win is Stefan Struve.
Not UFC career… total career. Losing to good fighters doesn’t mean you’re a good fighter.
pdl - February 1, 2012
Then why is Couture considered great?
YPG - February 1, 2012
Because he beat Chuck Liddell, Tim Sylvia, Kevin Randleman, Vitor Belfort (2x), Tito Ortiz, and Pedro Rizzo(2x)?
pdl - February 1, 2012
Lmao
What a ridiculous question. I’m surprised you responded to it.
Tim Bernier - February 1, 2012
He also beat James Toney
who has beaten Holyfield who has beaten Tyson. Couture is a legend.
NEW-HAMPSHIRE - February 2, 2012
Holy shit.
SSreporters - February 1, 2012
Schaub’s not better than Struve?
Tim Burke - February 1, 2012
Schaub would push Struve's shit in
That to me is Nelson’s best win
SSreporters - February 1, 2012
It was a near toss up in my head, but I don't think Struve gets KO'd by Zombie Nog
and I don’t like Schaub because fuck him. But when these are the guys in the argument, it becomes more and more obvious that Roy is an entertaining and personable a journeyman.
pdl - February 1, 2012
I was referring to Scotty, his only recent lost was to Cruz…
TheIrishLemon - February 1, 2012
Seriously dude, I would suggest to go with Barao.
Chris Groves - February 1, 2012
Are we forgetting Kimbo here or are we deciding he never existed?
NEW-HAMPSHIRE - February 2, 2012
any good betting websites for the u.k?
THEFILMGUY - February 1, 2012
Most of them, I think. Betting sites are difficult for people living in the US because we’ve had some crack downs on betting and gambling in the past few years. SportsBookReview.com reviews all the books and tells what countries they’re available in. Personally, I use 5Dimes and haven’t had any issues. Let me know if you have any questions.
Tim Bernier - February 1, 2012
I use Paddy Power
But they don’t usually have all the fights listed until a day or 2 before the event.
YPG - February 1, 2012
I miss Paddy Power
There was one two blocks from my apartment when I lived in Ireland, loved that place.
Patrick Wyman - February 2, 2012
www.oddschecker.com
Go there, and choose the MMA/UFC bit, and it collates all the odds on all the up and coming fights, and shows you what boomaker has the best odds on whatever outcome you fancy. Ladbrokes have the odds up for a multitude of fights, including Silva/Sonnen, and at 1.4, or 1.44 at Skybet, Silva looks very, very tasty indeed.
Harry Gash - February 3, 2012
Any reason why Natal is favored over Kuiper?
Or is it based mainly on his previous experience in the UFC?
RonSwanson - February 1, 2012
Because Natal is number 2 ranked Tennis player
jk…nice user name though. Love Parks and Rec
Frank Lee - February 1, 2012
Thank you, thank you.
RonSwanson - February 1, 2012
Look at you, getting all emotional there.
Patrick Wyman - February 1, 2012
Emotional: only acceptable at funerals and when viewing the grand canyon.
RonSwanson - February 1, 2012
Legit LOL
When I read that to myself in Ron Swanson’s voice.
Patrick Wyman - February 1, 2012
If you want some serious lulz
Go ‘Like" George Takei’s Facebook page and read every post in his voice.
crazedfan - February 2, 2012
Kulper looks good
But his opposition isn’t that good. Natal has fought relatively decent middleweights in his career.
discoandherpes - February 2, 2012
I wish I could’ve snagged Diaz when he was closer to even, but the main card odds are always up way before the prelim odds so they adjust before I can parlay with prelim fights. Annoying. I don’t know if I should get him at -200 or wait to see if his line improves.
I’m thinking:
Diaz
Werdum
+151
and
Kos
Barao
Thompson
Riddle
+261
Tim Bernier - February 1, 2012
Never bet on Matt Riddle.
He’s so incredibly not good at MMA.
pdl - February 1, 2012
Even against a fighter coming in on such short notice?
I’ll take that into consideration. Maybe he’ll be one of the guys I never bet for or against, like Nate Diaz or Joey Beltran.
Tim Bernier - February 1, 2012
Martinez is moving up a weight class for this fight also
He’s only 5’7" and Riddle is a fucking tank at 170. I like Riddle by squash.
crazedfan - February 2, 2012
I'll always remember Riddle's bizarre windmill punches in his fight against Sean Pierson.
He threw endless volleys of punches that didn’t come within a foot of landing, his opponent looked dumbfounded.
Riddle has length, a good chin, and some wrestling ability, but he hasn’t adapted it well for MMA, and makes Jake Shields look like a master striker.
lolumad - February 2, 2012
can someone explain the odds i know dumb question but I’m young and have never betted before =(
THEFILMGUY - February 1, 2012
if someone is -205 that means to win 100 bucks u have to put up 205 bucks. If you lose..you lose that 205. IF you take the underdog at +165 for 100 bucks. You win 165 bucks
Frank Lee - February 1, 2012
thanks ;)
THEFILMGUY - February 1, 2012
just go fuck around on mmaplayground betting, thats how I learned.
Tats16 - February 1, 2012
I know this is going to get me in trouble...
but the whole way Americans report betting lines seems retarded.
In Australia lines are always reported just on what you get back for ever dollar you put down, so there’s no plus or minus and you can work both lines out the same way. It’s much less confusing.
For example sportsbet.com.au has the Condit (2.61) and Diaz (1.45), meaning a dollar for Condit wins you $2.61 and a dollar for Diaz wins you $1.45.
The whole +/- thing seems unnecessarily complicated.
Detective Squirts - February 1, 2012
but the whole way Americans report betting lines
seemsis retarded.MMAussie - February 1, 2012
Couldn't agree more
American betting lines make slightly more sense than the British fractional system but the decimal system is by far the most logical and easily understood/explained.
wonderfulspam - February 1, 2012
That’s because the british use the metric system.
Matt Hamill's Ears - February 1, 2012 via mobile
Get you in trouble?
No you’re right on the money.
Rob Young - February 1, 2012 via mobile
You sir... are now in TROUBLE MOST DIRE!
Balrog - February 1, 2012
As an American
I agree with you. It’s not that ‘our’ system is not understandable, but why make it more confusing than it has to be? What everyone really wants to know is how much you make per dollar bet.
Thor77 - February 3, 2012
Major value on Condit
especially a fight that’s a pick em imo
Frank Lee - February 1, 2012
I think Big Country takes this one
av1o3 - February 1, 2012
decent money to be made here
MattParker117 - February 1, 2012
My picks
Diaz
Nelson
Pierce
Barao
Herman
Poirier
Caceres
Riddle
Cope
Rob Young - February 1, 2012
Cope?
Riddle?
Caceres?
halitosis - February 1, 2012
I was leaning toward Riddle too, but as Cub Swanson proved to me last week..it’s not necessarily wise to pick against Team Jackson when you’re unsure to begin with.
RonSwanson - February 1, 2012
The other guy is naturally a LW and is taking the fight on a matter of days notice...so yeah.
Chris Groves - February 1, 2012
Derp. I never even noticed that, good call.
RonSwanson - February 1, 2012
But he also just fought on the 21st or something...so he should be fairly sharp
Chris Groves - February 1, 2012
I don't think Cope is very good
I just think Matt Brown is worse. Che Mills would fuck him up just as bad as he did Cope IMO. And I think Caceres finally found his proper weight class. Escovedo is much better than his recent record suggests and Caceres ran through him.
Rob Young - February 1, 2012 via mobile
Che Mills is actually really good.
He is fighting Rory at 145 an while he may lose I think he will put on a really impressive performance.
NEW-HAMPSHIRE - February 2, 2012
So I'm gonna start betting on MMA
Which sites are good/won’t steal my money? I’m in the US.
crazybones - February 1, 2012
Bodog (Bovada) and 5Dimes.
Tim Burke - February 1, 2012
WOW! Diaz is that big of a favorite over Condit, I smell an upset!
Meek Mill - February 1, 2012
I’ll take Roy, please, side of fries. He isn’t getting submitted. He never gets submitted. And Werdum sure as hell isn’t knocking him out.
superflat - February 1, 2012
But then we have the decision.
I know, why mention it? Fights rarely end up decided by judges.
halitosis - February 1, 2012 via mobile
I'm still not sold on Renan he hasn't fought a staright up tough wrestler dude
all the guys he has fought have mainly stand and traded while Jorgenson will do that he’ll try and shoot to
MaZZacare - February 1, 2012
I'm so firmly attached to Spotty Scotty's nuts that ikilled007 thinks I take my fandom too far.
That being said, Barao is gonna knock him the hell out. Jorg trusts his chin way too much and I can’t help but seeing that cost him eventually, and I think this week is that eventually.
Paulo Filho's Psychiatrist - February 1, 2012 via mobile
I tend to agree, but Ina 3 round fight, Scotty is hard to beat.
Snatchl - February 1, 2012
He's the worst starter in the UFC though.
Worse than Dunham. The dude is poop in the first round.
pdl - February 1, 2012
Funnily enough, all of his finishes are in the first round!
Against no one worth a damn granted, but yeah….
I expect Barao to wreck Spotty Scotty.
SSreporters - February 2, 2012
Pickett is a very good wrestler.
Tim Burke - February 1, 2012
If you had 10 bucks and had to bet on this card
What would you put it on
Our Bovine Public - February 1, 2012
you looking for a sleeper to hit big, value on the 10, or the safe bet to win a small amount back?
sklart - February 1, 2012
I wana make some good money but I want a safe bet.
Our Bovine Public - February 2, 2012
If you wanna make 2 bucks? Dustin Poirier. If you wanna make 8 bucks? Edwin Figueroa.
Tim Burke - February 1, 2012
Mike Pierce
halitosis - February 1, 2012 via mobile
Jon Olav Einemo
SSreporters - February 1, 2012
werdum
Hardy's in your face - February 1, 2012
main has some tight lines
Bloodsport - February 1, 2012 via mobile
My god Nelson should be a much much bigger underdog
Than +120. I like Roy’s fights, but FFS Werdum is top 10.
SSreporters - February 1, 2012
Nick via 5 Point Palm Exploding Heart Technique.
RolloTomasi - February 2, 2012
Kill Bill Vol 1 + 2 are my least favorite Tarantino films, along with that 'Death Proof' segment from Grindhouse
Inglourious Basterds was a fantastic return to form.
Chris Groves - February 2, 2012
Kill Bill 1 is awesome entertainment
Our Bovine Public - February 2, 2012
I agree.
RolloTomasi - February 2, 2012
Well made
crap
UncleMax - February 2, 2012
Kill Bill was awesome imo
discoandherpes - February 2, 2012
Kill Bill took a while to grow on me
Basterds I loved right out of the gate. That movie just rules. Right from the opening scene. Man I love that scene.
The Kill Bills work best when taken together. Not that you have to watch both at once, but just the whole East/West contrast/fusion was cool. I liked both movies better in relation to eachother than I liked either one by itself. It was a bit of a self-indulgent project on Tarantino’s part, but I can’t say I’m sorry he made them.
Thor77 - February 3, 2012
I’m having a hard time picking the werdum & nelson fight, I’m thinking either nelson gets the ko or werdum takes a decision.
The BaldFather - February 2, 2012
I’m liking Werdum alot in this one, he has stood with a lot of power punchers and only JDS was able to hurt him badly. As bad as the Reem fight was, he was still able to go 3 rounds with the one of (if not the) best HW strikers out there without getting hurt. Nelson on the other hand looked like he was seconds away from getting KO’d by the ghost of Cro Cop last time out. On the other hand he has gone 3 with JDS who also may be the best HW striker alive, then again Roy got the absolute shit beat ouf of him in that fight.
I’m thinking Werdum UD.
Ak.Death - February 2, 2012
I wouldn’t say Werdum went 3 with the Reem and didn’t get hurt. I think a lot of Reem’s shots hurt him, but he was flopping too much to tell.
Baby Wads - February 2, 2012
I have a hard time getting on the Werdum War Wagon
I think if he wins this it’ll be decision. Nelson has enough grappling skill that he’s unlikely to be submitted, and a KO seems unlikely given Nelson’s chin and the fact that Werdum is far from the hardest puncher in the division. On Nelson’s side, I figure he has a reasonable chance at getting a (T)KO in the stand up.
But then you look at Werdum’s losses: Kharitonov (‘05), Arlovski (’07), Big Nog (‘06 edition), JDS, Overeem…does Big Country belong on that list? Especially given that Werdum is better in the stand-up game now than he was say 07 and earlier. It is a tough one to call, and that’s why the odds are pretty narrow. Screw it, Nelson by TKO.
Thor77 - February 3, 2012
Bovada has +325 for Martinez
that seems like a decent play, don’t know shit about the guy but Riddle doesn’t look that good at all.
Ak.Death - February 2, 2012
From what i've heard this seems like a gimme fight for Riddle.
Riddle’s opponent is fighting on short notice, is only 5’7 and is naturally a LW.
av1o3 - February 2, 2012
Was just reading that too
fuck it, i’ll still include Martinez in a couple bs one dollar, 6-10 man parlays that I always do and lose on.
Ak.Death - February 2, 2012
How much do you tend to get back on 1 dollar parlays with that many guys?
Chris Groves - February 2, 2012
or how much COULD you get back?
Chris Groves - February 2, 2012
I have a few $1 plays
not gonna type em all out but the returns are pretty huge.
One for $214, one for $320, one for $500. I look at it like playing the lottery, I’m gonna lose most all of them but one of these days I’m gonna strike it rich! I usually balance them out with some more realistic plays that usually end up making my money back and then some.
Ak.Death - February 2, 2012
I hope Koscheck gets KO'ed
from a slow, looping, telegraphed over hand right that had missed for the first two rounds but finally connected in the third.
NEW-HAMPSHIRE - February 2, 2012
I concur.
NickRingp4pGOAT - February 2, 2012
I wanna know if Koscheck can feel the right side of his face, yet.
Llewdor - February 2, 2012
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