Events like Wednesday's UFC on Fuel card are either very good for betting, or very bad for it depending on your perspective. If you have the time to do a lot of research and know some of the undercard fighters better than the linemakers, the potential is there to make a killing. On the other hand, betting on the unknown is not wise if you're not completely up to speed. I see two solid bets outside of the new guys though, so all is not lost.
The first is - the main event, and Diego Sanchez. No, I'm not crazy (despite what Nick Diaz fans might tell you). The Shields win earned Ellenberger plenty of justified hype, but I still have the Carlos Eduardo Rocha fight in the back of my head and Sanchez is a grinder. I expected the line to see Diego in the +175 to +200 range, not +250. I believe there is value in that bet, though I'll probably still be picking the Juggernaut in my predictions.
The other live dog I see is Vagner Rocha. While Brookins has good wrestling and is extremely tough to finish, Rocha has better submission skills and has only lost to much bigger men. At +175, he seems like a solid investment to me. Anyway, here are your lines for UFC on Fuel:
Lines via www.bodog.ca
Feb 15th, live on Fuel TV from Omaha, NE:
Main Card:
Diego Sanchez (26-5) +250 vs. Jake Ellenberger (23-4) -325
Dave Herman (21-2) -140 vs. Stefan Struve (22-5) +110
Ronny Markes (12-1) -115 vs. Aaron Simpson (11-2) -115
Philip de Fries (8-0, 1 NC) +350 vs. Stipe Miocic (7-0) -500
Preliminary Card:
T.J. Dillashaw (4-1) -255 vs. Walel Watson (9-3) +195
Jonathan Brookins (12-4) -225 vs. Vagner Rocha (7-2) +175
John Albert (7-1) +210 vs. Ivan Menjivar (23-8) -270
Bernardo Magalhaes (11-1) -210 vs. Tim Means (16-3-1) +170
Sean Loeffler (25-5) -115 vs. Buddy Roberts (11-2) -115
Anton Kuivanen (16-4) +105 vs. Justin Salas (9-3) -135
0 recs | 66 comments
The Gazelle is a pretty live underdog here for sure
Earl Montclair - February 13, 2012
There's been a ton of action
On that line. I think Dillashaw opened up well north of -300.
Patrick Wyman - February 13, 2012
Rightly so.
I’m not sold on Dillashaw at all.
POW - February 13, 2012
Agreed
If he keeps his hands as low as he has his last few fights, he’s going to end up on someone’s highlight reel.
Patrick Wyman - February 13, 2012
im picking watson by tko
benten20 - February 13, 2012
Tomorrow night is tuesday, valentine's day.
This card is wednesday. I hope you didn’t give that box of chocolate to your special someone prematurely.
Not Hauser - February 13, 2012
Prematurely is the only way I know how to do anything.
POW - February 13, 2012
hahaha
.5man.5bear.5pig - February 14, 2012
thanks for that
only found out this was wednesday in the last thread i read
this one had me flummoxed
Cunny - February 13, 2012
Struve might be 265+ for this fight, i would like to see him grapple more in his fights.
Kenya_MMA - February 13, 2012
I agree
his stand up and defense is terrible, he has no idea what a reach advantage is, I’m pretty sure Dodson can kyo him. His guard must feel like a death trap with those long limbs
.5man.5bear.5pig - February 14, 2012
Struve is an ok bet here.
I also like Rocha over Brookins.
pdl - February 13, 2012
Yeah
I’m surprised at that line. Herman is rad and fun to watch, but he’s not THAT good.
Not Hauser - February 13, 2012
You could say the same for Struve, though
Horselover Fat - February 13, 2012
Struve has a terrible chin
I bet against him against any good striking heavyweight.
aaronb - February 13, 2012
Struve has a good chin, every fight he gets smashed by mega power shots with his hands down, chin up, sometimes even moving into the punch and he survives more time than not. Look at the Paul Bentello fight, he gets smash and still fights on, happens in a lot of fights.
His defense is some of the worst in UFC, hands down a lot, chin always in the air, no attempt to use the jab to keep his(always shorter lesser reached) opponents at bay, Roy Nelson just casually walked up and smash Struve with a mega punch. And Roy has been proven to be one of the heavyist hitters in the division. He is just to fat, slow and predictable to hit anyone thats really good(though he did drop Werdum, someone else that has a good chin).
Kefka - February 13, 2012
“I bet against him against any good striking heavyweight.”
So you betted against him in the McCorkle fight?
Kenya_MMA - February 13, 2012
McCorkle is a good striker?
Since when is McCorkle a good anything?
discoandherpes - February 13, 2012
McCorkle is terrible
And still had full mount on Struve from what I remember before he stupidly went for an armbar and was reversed and beaten to a pulp.
SSreporters - February 13, 2012
McCorkle didn't have mount IIRC
He got hip bucked from guard into Struve’s mount.
Chris Hall - February 14, 2012
yeah
Earl Montclair - February 14, 2012
In the worst display of BJJ defense sinnce ever, if I'm not mistaken
Chris Hall - February 14, 2012
it rivaled Bruce Leroy's submission offense
Earl Montclair - February 14, 2012
Dude, I'm not even a white belt and I could tell how terrible that was...
Chris Hall - February 14, 2012
he was closer to getting him to tap to dick kicks.
Earl Montclair - February 14, 2012
It sucks really, becuase he was good in the scrambles, but refused to take time with his subs
Chris Hall - February 14, 2012
He was awful spastic
Earl Montclair - February 14, 2012
McCorkle is a BJJ guy
his striking is poopy.
RolloTomasi - February 13, 2012
Not against McCorkle
McCorkle is a grapple and go for the kimura guy. A really big 1 trick pony if you will.
aaronb - February 14, 2012
Herman is gonna rip Struve a new bung hole
RolloTomasi - February 13, 2012
Don't see what Rocha can do to Brookins
SSreporters - February 13, 2012
By not being Jonathan Brookins is a good start.
Brookins is pretty not good at MMA and Rocha has solid BJJ. I’m not sure Brookins has any skills that make me want to pick him against almost any 145er.
pdl - February 13, 2012
Brookins vs. Zhang is a must
SSreporters - February 13, 2012
Brookins would take his back easy
discoandherpes - February 14, 2012
That fight makes me
pdl - February 14, 2012
Herman is a nut. He is going to KO Struve.
NEW-HAMPSHIRE - February 13, 2012
Second that. I love the Herm. If he had his head straight he’d be a force.
Jeremy Couturier - February 13, 2012
Dillashaw vs Watson is on the Main Card
TooLegitToQuit - February 13, 2012
Ronny Markes seems like a good bet here. Aaron Simpon has had shit cardio in the past, and I don’t see him beating a young Brazilian prospect here.
savik - February 13, 2012 via mobile
I was gonna say this
I think Markes will run through Simpson but those are just my $0.02
Hushh - February 13, 2012
He has good wrestling and good boxing, I'm picking him to win
But I wouldn’t be shocked if Markes ran through him. I think I actually would prefer it.
discoandherpes - February 13, 2012
The thing is that it will be Markes’ first cut to Middleweight. Also, I just don’t know if Markes will be able to take Simpson down as Simpson is just a very good wrestler. On the feet, I don’t know what Markes has, but Simpson has shown some improved standup on the feet as of late. I actually have Simpson winning this one.
chrisbboy82 - February 14, 2012
Rocha and particularly Watson
Look like solid bets. I’m not sold on Sanchez, though.
Means looks like he’s worth a punt as well.
wonderfulspam - February 13, 2012
I like Means and Watson too but I think Brookins will have noticeable size/strength advantage that will serve him in the grapple fest that is sure to come.
Brutal night of fight picking. Guarentee you will see the scores come back down to earth on this one.
Hardy's in your face - February 13, 2012
Only 10 fights as well
Yup, it does indeed look like a tough night of fights to pick. I’m thinking average team scores of around 500.
Strangely enough, MMA Playground as a whole seems to think almost every fight is lopsided with Sanchez, Albert, De Fries, Watson and Rocha getting <30% of the picks while Markes gets 37%, Struve 39%, Roberts 31% and Magalhaes 34%, leaving the hot bout as the only close bout (55% pick Kuivanen).
wonderfulspam - February 13, 2012
That is weird about Albert, Watson and Rocha getting less than 30%. And Loeffler getting 69% over Roberts. How do you even pick that fight? As you can see the oddsmakers here have them even. I was leaning towards roberts but i dont think i can go against the collective wisdom of playground.
I say median score will be 52.
Hardy's in your face - February 14, 2012
I just look at the competition
Loeffler hasn’t really beat anyone good recently and Buddy Roberts has. Roberts trains at Jackson’s, so I picked him.
discoandherpes - February 14, 2012
Good call. Back to Roberts
Hardy's in your face - February 14, 2012
If it’s a “grapple fest,” Rocha will win. He’s the best grappler, no question. But can he get Brookins down? I don’t know. Can he strike? I don’t know.
crazybones - February 13, 2012
Better grappler, not best.
crazybones - February 13, 2012
By grapple fest I was forseeing a lot of top control from Brookins but you’re right, he’ll prob respect Rocha’s grappling chops and only look for TD’s towards the end of the rounds. I think he Brookins can avoid sweeps and reversals but we’ll see.
Hardy's in your face - February 14, 2012
WORSE possible stylistic matchup for sanchez
They both have the tools to beat each other’s style, however Ellenberger has a dinstinct size advantage IMO. Kinda reminds me of Koscheck vs Sanchez
The KO Kid - February 13, 2012 via iPhone app
but even worse because Jake can strike
Earl Montclair - February 13, 2012
Jesus Christ
I don’t know a single fighter on the prelims. Two of those fights (Dillashaw/Watson and Albert/Ivan) were bumped to main.
The only good bet is Watson.
SSreporters - February 13, 2012
Don’t sleep on Brookings…Rocha is about as impressive as a midget porno star. To all the Struve haters, yeah, if he hasn’t put a decent jab together, he will get smashed. If he has, look out, y’all! (Dan Severn just showed up on my Royal Rumble 1999 tape! Did all y’all see that back in the day?) As far as the main event, I like Ellenberger big time. I LOVE getting live UFC in the middle of the week! Thank you, Emperor White!
Mr. Socko - February 14, 2012 via mobile
Kind of sucks for Austkralians though
When it’s live… midday on Thursday
Pyrgz Krum - February 14, 2012
Any decent
sites out there for parlay that don’t require a $50 deposit to play? I usually do Sportsbook because I can start with just $20 but they don’t do MMA parlays.
LebenByTriangle - February 14, 2012
Nevermind
Disregard!
LebenByTriangle - February 14, 2012
dear FUEL TV, i hate you
Randy Marsh - February 14, 2012
Bout to play UFC 3 online
Anyone else on this?
Chris Hall - February 14, 2012
Comes out friday for us. How is it?
Sweet Scientist - February 14, 2012
ohhh shit
I forgot this was on a wensday. Damn fuel and its sneaky programing
youfailme91 - February 14, 2012 via mobile
is the ww division became that bad, so ellenberger and sanchez are to be #1 contenders.
There is a case for ellenberger,but apart of shields and arguably condit, who has he beaten?
And sanchez won 1 of his last 4 fights in my opinion and it was against paulo thiago. He definitely didn’t win against kampamnn. It is what it is, it’s all gsp’s fault!
Rampage01 - February 14, 2012
Herman and Struve are gonna get tangled up like a sweaty pretzel.
NickRingp4pGOAT - February 14, 2012
The Main Card has 6 fights on TV according to Fuel TV
•Jake Ellenberger vs. Diego Sanchez
•Dave Herman vs. Stefan Struve
•Ronny Markes vs. Aaron Simpson
•Philip De Fries vs. Stipe Miocic
•T.J. Dillashaw vs. Walel Watson
•John Albert vs. Ivan Menjivar
Anr - February 14, 2012
Yup, they changed it yesterday.
Tim Burke - February 14, 2012
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