Frankie Edgar wears his belt out of the cage at UFC 136 on Saturday, Oct. 8, 2011 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. Esther Lin, MMA Fighting
With so many fights coming up spread across eight different weight classes, it's easy to lose track of what's happening in every division. Here, we take a look at where a particular division stands right now, and where it's headed.
This weekend, the UFC Lightweight division takes center stage as reigning champion Frankie Edgar defends his belt against the #4 ranked former WEC champion Ben Henderson. As is often the case in the 155 pound division, things have been rather hectic in recent months with a number of former top contenders pushed aside and new names in to take their places. Melvin Guillard, Dennis Siver, Donald Cerrone, Clay Guida... all close to title contention, now all looking to regroup.
So what comes next for the winner of Edgar/Henderson? And who is our next crop of potential challengers in the deep Lightweight waters? Let's take a look...
Next in Line:
Though not officially a #1 contender fight, chances are good the winner of #6 Jim Miller vs. #8 Nate Diaz on the May 5 UFC on Fox 3 show will be the next title challenger. Miller looked poised to get the current shot, but Henderson snatched it away from him last summer. He's since come back with a good win over Guillard, and a win over Diaz would likely seal the deal. Diaz is only 2-0 since returning to Lightweight after a brief Welterweight run. You could say he's not yet earned his spot, but wins over Cerrone and Miller make a strong case. Plus his last name is Diaz, and right now, that's a good thing to capitalize on.
Key Match Ups:
You never know who is going to emerge from the pack at Lightweight and who is going to fade back into the middle of the field, but the following fights all have the potential to create a future title challenger:
#10 Anthony Pettis vs. #12 Joe Lauzon (UFC 144) - On the undercard of Edgar vs. Henderson is this big fight. Pettis was promised a title shot for being the final WEC champion, but when Edgar vs. Maynard 2 went to a draw and the rematch was first announced, then postponed, he decided to stay active by facing Clay Guida. A loss there set him back, but he's since come back by defeating Jeremy Stephens. Joe Lauzon made big waves with his win over Guillard at UFC 136. If the winner here takes home the victory in thrilling fashion, I'd expect a title eliminator next.
#13 Donald Cerrone vs. Yves Edwards (UFC on Fuel 3) - Had he defeated Diaz at UFC 141, Cerrone would be at the very top of the division, but it didn't happen, and now the Cowboy is way down the ladder. Yves Edwards is no slouch, but he's also not a relevant contender at this point. This is a chance for Cerrone to get back on track, provided he doesn't make a mistake and take Edwards too lightly.
#20 Evan Dunham vs. Edson Barboza (UFC 146) - Just announced, this one is a great potential showcase for Barboza. Though Dunham is ranked higher, it's Barboza who has the clear momentum thanks to his spectacular KO of Terry Etim. That's the kind of moment that you need to shine at Lightweight, and if Barboza can again deliver fireworks, he'll be on the fast track up the ranks.
In The Mix:
A few former contenders sit just outside the title picture, waiting to see what's next. And come to think of it, pairing these two up looks like a pretty good idea to me:
#3 Gray Maynard - Maynard is in the unenviable position of being able to defeat pretty much anyone in the division except the champion. Call it the Jon Fitch spot. He has to be hoping for a Henderson win this weekend, as I can't see a 4th Edgar vs. Maynard happening anytime soon.
#7 Clay Guida - Always a bridesmaid, never a bride. Guida is the guy you beat before challenging for the belt. Florian did it, Henderson did it, Pettis tried and failed. But can Clay himself ever get that shot?
Others to Consider:
And finally, a few names from outside the title picture that should be mentioned:
#2 Gilbert Melendez - The Strikeforce champion was rumored to be on his way to the UFC late last year, but now the talk is that he's staying put. But let's be honest - people want him in the UFC, and that's where he should be.
#15 Melvin Guillard - He's lost 2 in a row after being about 1 win from a title shot, but Guillard's combination of personality and KO power make him a constant threat to the top. He'll need some wins to get close again though.
There are tons of other possible contenders out there - Matt Wiman, Mark Bocek, Gleison Tibau... but for the moment they're all stuck together in the middle. As Barboza showed, one big win can elevate you in an instant, but for now, they'll have to fight it out among themselves and see if anyone takes that step up.
I got nate if he wins his next fight with miller. Nate has impressed me after every one of his fights.I honestly believe nate has progressed more in last fights more than nick has in the last couple of years with that said I still think Edgar and maynard beat him 9/10 times though.
Jamie’s belts aren’t exactly McDojo awards either. He’s given out three blacks, to Jim, Dan (who handled himself just fine on the mats with the likes of Maia and Palhares) and a guy named John “Birdman” Finn, who is a crazy talented BJJ player and showed a pair of transitions at the super seminar that literally caused multiple people in the room to audibly go “Daaaaamn,” the first time he showed them. I don’t think there’s any instructor out there who, had Jim been under them not Jamie for the past five years, wouldn’t have him as a black belt by now.
Not always, no, but this is a pretty clear cut case. Jim’s guard passes, defense, setups, and everything are quite a bit better than Nate’s. Nate has more submissions from inside his guard, but his guard gets passed very easily (though he quickly goes to re-guard it gets passed again) and he often gets trapped in positions or spots and just goes for a desperation move.
Let’s look at a scenario: Could Nate fight off Mark Bocek on his back? I don’t think so. I also don’t think Jim would have been submitted inside Hermes Franca’s guard.
Take that bs back to the hivemind “news” website it frequents…
Color of belt means nothing. And Jim does not have an awesome double leg. I see this as a very close match but wouldn’t be surprised to see Diaz take the W via decision.
Yes, better jiu jitsu. Miller has the best for-MMA BJJ in the UFC’s lightweight division and, just like last time fans talked about how much better his opponent was on the ground then Miller walked out with his leg two minutes later, he’ll prove it again come May.
I’m not willing to say that Jim Miller is going to be able to positionally control Nate based off his recent fights with Kim and MacDonald. I know it’s more than likely what happens but I’m giving Nate the benefit of the doubt here.
Plus, when was the last time Jim Miller used his wrestling in a top control sort of manner? He was giving up position all day long against Bendo.
Wasn’t trying to discredit Bendo. He looked great but Miller was going for some pretty low percentage stuff against Bendo and willingly giving Bendo a position he could control.
The Bendo vs Miller fight really isn’t a great barometer for Miller’s wrestling and BJJ. Bendo is a strong wrestler, a very strong guy in general, and great with scrambling with his BJJ. When Bendo is on top of someone, he does a lot of damage and can keep people on the bottom.
I admit that Miller didn’t have the best game plan against Bendo, but also Bendo managed to employ his game on Miller as well. Looking at the Guillard fight, he knew to take Guillard down as he is weak there, and Miller ended up winning. Miller, in general, has shown to be a smart fighter.
Better stand up, Better BJJ, much longer, etc. I think he would put a hurting on him although I’m not an Edgar believer just yet. I think he just has Penns number and he beat Maynard once after almost getting TKO’ed. If edgar beats Henderson (which I doubt), I will believe in the answer because ben is a good fighter who is good in all areas and he is much bigger than Frank.
but I do not think he could do it consistently for 5 rounds. I also know Frank could not submit or TKO him so his only path to victory is a decision where as Diaz could TKO or submit Frankie. I think if the fight went to a decision Frankie would win but if the fight was finished it would be Diaz doing it.
He can do it consistently enough to win 3 out of 5 rounds IMO.
On the feet he might have trouble with Nate’s size and reach but I don’t think he gets owned by Nate. I agree that if the fights get finished, it’s probably Nate doing it, but I’d probably favor Frankie in that matchup.
he could win 3 out of 5 easy. He is the champ for a reason haha. I think if Nate did get a shot against Frank he could win. Just has to watch a lot of tape and really use his length. It would be weird for Nate diaz to be the UFC Lightweight champion.
Because he’d be the former, 3 time defending champion of the weight class above in which he was significantly dwarfed by nearly everyone in the division. Given how few challengers there are at FW, does it make sense to force Edgar to have a tune up fight in the division before challenging for the title?
Personally I think they should just set up a 150 lb catchweight superfight, regardless of if Edgar wins or loses.
that it’ll be on the brazil card, but i do think that is the fight to make this summer sometime if Frankie can get past bendo…& that is a BIG if. I expect edgar bendo to be a high paced 5 rd war FOTY candidate…Maybe even cause for an Immediate rematch
I wouldn’t say we’ll never see him fight again, but he’s currently in a state of semi-retirement as I see it. Hasn’t fought in over a year and only has one fight in the past 3 years. Sherk has taken these kind of big gaps off before, but he’s 38 and has dealt with a huge slew of injuries. Stranger things have happened, but I don’t envision him as a contender again.
Bendo is going to have a hell of a hard time moving Edgar around. The champ may be smaller, but he’s the much better wrestler and his wrestling strength is off the charts, just ask Maynard. Jim Miller has rolled with Edgar when they used to train, and just fought Henderson, and said that even in the state he was in for that fight Henderson was easier to deal with physically than Edgar is. Frankie will be able to keep the fight on the feet and pepper Bendo for as long as it takes to get the stoppage or the clear decision.
Maynard/Diaz a “bs decision”? Yeah, sure. Maynard rocked Diaz standing often enough that Diaz wanted to go Take Downs.
The Judges scored it 30-27, 29-28 Maynard. Were you the Judge who scored it 29-28 Diaz?
I was there, Cageside. You could hear and see the difference when Maynard connected on Diaz. The mini brain Diaz fans mantra; “he got robbed”.
Melendez won’t be coming to the UFC. However, his worst nightmare may soon be realized when his next fight is announced, possibly for June. His safe SF Island is about to be invaded.
Yeah, Fraser, Maynard is doomed, he should give it up.
After all, he’s only 1-1-1 with the Champ.
A different Ref, or Judge, Edgar’s Corner throwing in the Towel as they were preparing to do’ a point deduction for Edgar clinging to the Cage several times to save himself. Yeah you are an astute observer, you are.
The last fight Edgar took FAR more damage in one round, again, than Maynard in the entire fight including the TKO (which I agreed with totally). Thats with a 2 week Training Camp and epidurals for his back repeatedly.
Yeah, Fraser, incredible insight you have there, old Boy.
But not a bad article, overall. Thanks
Don’t matter who’s next, nobody will stop Frankie!!!…hopefully.
Meek Mill - February 21, 2012
I think it's possible we get Winner of Pettis Lauzon next
Because it’ll be a long time sitting out for the winner of 144 possibly waiting from Feb to lets say July August…
I think they should put the winner of Pettis Lauzon on in May Co-Main event maybe…
Who knows maybe Pettis and Bendo win…..
AfroSamurai - February 21, 2012
I got nate if he wins his next fight with miller. Nate has impressed me after every one of his fights.I honestly believe nate has progressed more in last fights more than nick has in the last couple of years with that said I still think Edgar and maynard beat him 9/10 times though.
youfailme91 - February 21, 2012 via mobile
I think Nate beats Edgar
and there is no way Gray beat nate when they fought. That was a BS decision.
NEW-HAMPSHIRE - February 21, 2012
Yeah, Nate’s resurgence is due to the fact that he hasn’t fought a strong wrestler.
Jim Miller? Strong wrestler. Better Jiu-Jitsu. Diaz stops here.
MicahtheCynic - February 21, 2012
Better Jiu-Jitsu?
LOL
juanchoD - February 21, 2012
Jim Miller – Black Belt
Nate Diaz – Brown Belt
Durr hurr hurr?
MicahtheCynic - February 21, 2012
They're about even
Cesar Gracie is pretty tough on belt rankings.
And besides, belt ranking isn’t always a perfect indicator.
halitosis - February 21, 2012 via mobile
Jamie’s belts aren’t exactly McDojo awards either. He’s given out three blacks, to Jim, Dan (who handled himself just fine on the mats with the likes of Maia and Palhares) and a guy named John “Birdman” Finn, who is a crazy talented BJJ player and showed a pair of transitions at the super seminar that literally caused multiple people in the room to audibly go “Daaaaamn,” the first time he showed them. I don’t think there’s any instructor out there who, had Jim been under them not Jamie for the past five years, wouldn’t have him as a black belt by now.
JustBlogGuy - February 21, 2012
Not always, no, but this is a pretty clear cut case. Jim’s guard passes, defense, setups, and everything are quite a bit better than Nate’s. Nate has more submissions from inside his guard, but his guard gets passed very easily (though he quickly goes to re-guard it gets passed again) and he often gets trapped in positions or spots and just goes for a desperation move.
Let’s look at a scenario: Could Nate fight off Mark Bocek on his back? I don’t think so. I also don’t think Jim would have been submitted inside Hermes Franca’s guard.
MicahtheCynic - February 21, 2012
Slippery slope there. How many black belts would have gotten caught by Mackens Semerzier?
Stuff happens.
TMadeBurner - February 21, 2012
Durr hurr hurr?
Take that bs back to the hivemind “news” website it frequents…
Color of belt means nothing. And Jim does not have an awesome double leg. I see this as a very close match but wouldn’t be surprised to see Diaz take the W via decision.
cager - February 21, 2012
By that logic Pelligrino should have tapped Nate
Oh wait, Nate trapped Kurt in a triangle and had enough time to flip the bird and showboat before finishing it.
That said Miller is a legit black belt. Ask Olivera’s knee.
discoandherpes - February 21, 2012
Yes, better jiu jitsu. Miller has the best for-MMA BJJ in the UFC’s lightweight division and, just like last time fans talked about how much better his opponent was on the ground then Miller walked out with his leg two minutes later, he’ll prove it again come May.
JustBlogGuy - February 21, 2012
Two fights ago
He was taking on Rory Mac and getting ragdolled.
I’m not willing to say that Jim Miller is going to be able to positionally control Nate based off his recent fights with Kim and MacDonald. I know it’s more than likely what happens but I’m giving Nate the benefit of the doubt here.
Plus, when was the last time Jim Miller used his wrestling in a top control sort of manner? He was giving up position all day long against Bendo.
TMadeBurner - February 21, 2012
He wasn’t giving anything to Bendo, Bendo was taking everything he wanted in that fight.
Shnak - February 21, 2012
Wasn’t trying to discredit Bendo. He looked great but Miller was going for some pretty low percentage stuff against Bendo and willingly giving Bendo a position he could control.
TMadeBurner - February 21, 2012
Good point. I do remember Miller going for subs and giving up position in the process.
Shnak - February 21, 2012
The Bendo vs Miller fight really isn’t a great barometer for Miller’s wrestling and BJJ. Bendo is a strong wrestler, a very strong guy in general, and great with scrambling with his BJJ. When Bendo is on top of someone, he does a lot of damage and can keep people on the bottom.
I admit that Miller didn’t have the best game plan against Bendo, but also Bendo managed to employ his game on Miller as well. Looking at the Guillard fight, he knew to take Guillard down as he is weak there, and Miller ended up winning. Miller, in general, has shown to be a smart fighter.
chrisbboy82 - February 21, 2012
Carlos Condit got run through by Rory Mac as far as wrestling goes.
discoandherpes - February 21, 2012
ill agree with your point about nate not facing strong wrestlers
that whole welterweight run of nate’s probably improved his strength, but as we all know wrestling is the diaz kryptonite.
Edgar can easily implement a condit strategy if he did face nate, as well as use his excellent wrestling.
elmojo - February 21, 2012
It could be because of who he’s been fighting recently but is Frankie the type to use that sort of top control game that would frustrate Diaz?
TMadeBurner - February 21, 2012
The only guy to really hold him down and outgrapple him is Stevenson
He lites up nearly every wrestler he has ever fought. Guida for example, got the shit kicked out of him whenever the fight was on the feet.
discoandherpes - February 21, 2012
In what way do you see Nate beating Frankie?
thirdparty - February 21, 2012
Better stand up, Better BJJ, much longer, etc. I think he would put a hurting on him although I’m not an Edgar believer just yet. I think he just has Penns number and he beat Maynard once after almost getting TKO’ed. If edgar beats Henderson (which I doubt), I will believe in the answer because ben is a good fighter who is good in all areas and he is much bigger than Frank.
NEW-HAMPSHIRE - February 21, 2012
Better stand-up? I think that’s debatable, personally.
thirdparty - February 22, 2012
Also
Frankie’s only way of winning would be standing and banging with nate for 5 rounds and I just see Nate punching him in the face way too much.
NEW-HAMPSHIRE - February 21, 2012
You don't think Edgar could take him down and not get submitted?
Sweet Scientist - February 21, 2012
I do
but I do not think he could do it consistently for 5 rounds. I also know Frank could not submit or TKO him so his only path to victory is a decision where as Diaz could TKO or submit Frankie. I think if the fight went to a decision Frankie would win but if the fight was finished it would be Diaz doing it.
NEW-HAMPSHIRE - February 21, 2012
I could see Frankie taking the back and riding out the fight
Nate is so good at defending that he lets guys take his back earlier in his career. He’s gotten better since then, but it’s still a gameplanning flaw.
discoandherpes - February 21, 2012
He can do it consistently enough to win 3 out of 5 rounds IMO.
On the feet he might have trouble with Nate’s size and reach but I don’t think he gets owned by Nate. I agree that if the fights get finished, it’s probably Nate doing it, but I’d probably favor Frankie in that matchup.
Sweet Scientist - February 22, 2012
thats true
he could win 3 out of 5 easy. He is the champ for a reason haha. I think if Nate did get a shot against Frank he could win. Just has to watch a lot of tape and really use his length. It would be weird for Nate diaz to be the UFC Lightweight champion.
NEW-HAMPSHIRE - February 22, 2012
I’ll go off the menu and say Jose Aldo vs Edgar as the co-main event of the Sonnen-Silva fight in Brazil.
Stanlee - February 21, 2012
no
That’s a waste. The guys should become draws before they just blow it.
halitosis - February 21, 2012 via mobile
Why would Edgar fight Aldo coming off of a loss?
T.C. Engel - February 21, 2012 via mobile
Because he’d be the former, 3 time defending champion of the weight class above in which he was significantly dwarfed by nearly everyone in the division. Given how few challengers there are at FW, does it make sense to force Edgar to have a tune up fight in the division before challenging for the title?
Personally I think they should just set up a 150 lb catchweight superfight, regardless of if Edgar wins or loses.
MS_Dos_Santos - February 21, 2012
(It was a joke.)
T.C. Engel - February 21, 2012
I disagree
that it’ll be on the brazil card, but i do think that is the fight to make this summer sometime if Frankie can get past bendo…& that is a BIG if. I expect edgar bendo to be a high paced 5 rd war FOTY candidate…Maybe even cause for an Immediate rematch
JonBon Joey - February 21, 2012
i don't particularly care for the guy
but where in the heck is sean sherk??
FiatJustitiaRuatCaelum - February 21, 2012
Going through top secret training in Russia.
Trying to get his arms lengthened.
les rallizes denudes - February 21, 2012
Last seen in Nova Scotia fixing shopping carts...
BeefSupreme - February 21, 2012
I wouldn’t say we’ll never see him fight again, but he’s currently in a state of semi-retirement as I see it. Hasn’t fought in over a year and only has one fight in the past 3 years. Sherk has taken these kind of big gaps off before, but he’s 38 and has dealt with a huge slew of injuries. Stranger things have happened, but I don’t envision him as a contender again.
Fraser Coffeen - February 21, 2012
Is Gilbert Melendez ever coming to the UFC?
NEW-HAMPSHIRE - February 21, 2012
From the looks of it…no. And its a shame too, I would love to see him vs. Frankie.
BeefSupreme - February 21, 2012
Bendo to ragdoll Edgar, Diaz to get LnP by Miller, Pettis to KO J Lau, which drops Edgar to feather weight and sets the stage for Bendo&Showtime II
Derrida - February 21, 2012
I really hope Pettis returns to his winning ways.
I know he won against Stephens but that was a close fight and he didn’t seem like himself.
krste - February 21, 2012
Bendo is going to have a hell of a hard time moving Edgar around. The champ may be smaller, but he’s the much better wrestler and his wrestling strength is off the charts, just ask Maynard. Jim Miller has rolled with Edgar when they used to train, and just fought Henderson, and said that even in the state he was in for that fight Henderson was easier to deal with physically than Edgar is. Frankie will be able to keep the fight on the feet and pepper Bendo for as long as it takes to get the stoppage or the clear decision.
JustBlogGuy - February 21, 2012
justblogguys dropping some knowledge today!
gspmademegay - February 21, 2012
Just ask Maynard?
Does he even wrestler anymore? Got him all the way to a title shot then he basically abandons it after the first left hits Frankies face.
cager - February 21, 2012
To be fair
He was never really in a good position to shoot cause Edgar was out of range most of the fight.
discoandherpes - February 21, 2012
If all this happens
I’m buying you a steak.
Avap - February 21, 2012
you're right about the ragdoll part
but Diaz is winningm and Pettis is decisioning J Lau
NEW-HAMPSHIRE - February 21, 2012
I think it's obvious we all do,
But I fucking LOVE this weight class. So much talent, speed, skill, and will. Salute!
DankNabbot - February 21, 2012
@New-Hampshire
Maynard/Diaz a “bs decision”? Yeah, sure. Maynard rocked Diaz standing often enough that Diaz wanted to go Take Downs.
The Judges scored it 30-27, 29-28 Maynard. Were you the Judge who scored it 29-28 Diaz?
I was there, Cageside. You could hear and see the difference when Maynard connected on Diaz. The mini brain Diaz fans mantra; “he got robbed”.
Melendez won’t be coming to the UFC. However, his worst nightmare may soon be realized when his next fight is announced, possibly for June. His safe SF Island is about to be invaded.
Tehachipi - February 21, 2012
Yeah, Fraser, Maynard is doomed, he should give it up.
After all, he’s only 1-1-1 with the Champ.
A different Ref, or Judge, Edgar’s Corner throwing in the Towel as they were preparing to do’ a point deduction for Edgar clinging to the Cage several times to save himself. Yeah you are an astute observer, you are.
The last fight Edgar took FAR more damage in one round, again, than Maynard in the entire fight including the TKO (which I agreed with totally). Thats with a 2 week Training Camp and epidurals for his back repeatedly.
Yeah, Fraser, incredible insight you have there, old Boy.
But not a bad article, overall. Thanks
Tehachipi - February 21, 2012
Edgar won that second fight
The only round you could give to Gray is the first.
discoandherpes - February 21, 2012
Has Pettis been injured?
That Stephens fight seems like ages ago
Cunny - February 21, 2012
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