So, my Vagner Rocha underdog pick at UFC on Fuel didn't exactly pay off. Actually, it got knocked out. For UFC 144, there's really not a lot going on betting-wise. I won't comment on the main event because I don't really see any value in either side. The same goes for the co-main. Is there value in Mark Hunt at +230? As much as I hate to say this (Go Hunt!), there probably isn't. In fact, the whole main card is somewhat devoid of value to be honest.
Things get a little better on the undercard. I like Mizugaki at -200. There could possibly be some value in Steve Cantwell at +195 since Fukuda is coming off some injuries and has been out for a year, but the more I look at it, the more I want to shy away from it. And I refuse to say that Mitsuoka is good value against Gomi at +175 because Gomi is the Fireball Kid and cannot be beaten (I don't want to hear your lies about Diaz/Guida/Florian. It never happened).
Anyway, here's a look at the UFC 144 lines (undercard after the jump):
Lines courtesy of www.bodog.ca
Main Card:
Frankie Edgar (14-1) -130 vs. Ben Henderson (15-2) EVEN [LW Title]
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (32-9) -260 vs. Ryan Bader (13-2) +200
Mark Hunt (7-7) +230 vs. Cheick Kongo (17-6-2) -300
Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-4, 2 NC) +230 vs. Jake Shields (26-6-1) -300
Anthony Pettis (14-2) -250 vs. Joe Lauzon (21-6) +195
Yushin Okami (26-6) -450 vs. Tim Boetsch (14-4) +300
Hatsu Hioki (25-4-2) -195 vs. Bart Palaszewski (36-14) +155
Preliminary Card:
Takeya Mizugaki (15-6-2) -200 vs. Chris Cariaso (12-3) +160
Norifumi Yamamoto (18-5, 1 NC) -400 vs. Vaughan Lee (11-7-1) +300
Riki Fukuda (17-5) -250 vs. Steve Cantwell (7-5) +195
Takanori Gomi (32-8, 1 NC) -225 vs. Eiji Mitsuoka (18-7-2) +175
Tiequan Zhang (15-2) -300 vs. Issei Tamura (6-2) +230
0 recs | 150 comments
I think
that this is the first time that Frankie is the favorit
Full Mount - February 21, 2012
Crazy to think this is the first time he’s been favored, and it’s his fourth defense.
woomikee - February 21, 2012
Nooo
he was favored against Maynard in his last bout
milklavar - February 21, 2012
true but not by much
TheCode - February 22, 2012
Ben Henderson @ even money is pretty solid
Earl Montclair - February 21, 2012
Edgar is free money
Fight probably won’t be that close.
deliberately tuna - February 21, 2012
lol
halitosis - February 21, 2012 via mobile
lol yea ok, like Bendo is some sort of pushover. Good luck with that prediction.
milklavar - February 21, 2012
I'm betting Bendo don't get me wrong
But would you be shocked if it turned out to be Edgar 50-45 across the board
Jesus H. Christ - February 21, 2012
Agreed
I don’t think Edgar is going to put a beating on Bendo, but I think he’s going to stay on his bike and do enough in a lot of rounds to take a pretty easy decision.
MS_Dos_Santos - February 21, 2012
Also, Mitsuoka gon sub Gomi
Earl Montclair - February 21, 2012
shhh
Keep that secret until the live thread
halitosis - February 21, 2012 via mobile
nobody listens to me dude
Earl Montclair - February 21, 2012
I listen to you, man
Seriously.
glib_mf - February 22, 2012
Tim Burke - February 21, 2012
I've been mulling over Mitsuoka by decision and Mitsuoka by submission on my MMA Playground pick
discoandherpes - February 22, 2012
puttin money down on the sexy
im hoping the drop to 170 has increased his gas tank to at least the 2nd round.
mattsterguy - February 21, 2012
its very rare that dropping weight increases anyones gas tank
the only fighter i can think of that happening to is Bj Penn because he comes to fight at 155 in better shape then 170. Other then that it makes no sense to me.
benten20 - February 21, 2012
and by dropping weight i mean weight classes, not heavyweights
benten20 - February 21, 2012
thats exacrly my point...the sexy is going to be showing up in much better shape at a lower weight class
he is a 5’8 japanese male…his frame is deffinitly not suited to carry 185 pounds of bulk. Looking at all his fights in the ufc so far, i always noticed how disproportional his arms looked to his torso; the forearms seemed far too petite compared to the rest of him. That, combined with the fact that the sexy being a tactical genius and already doing at least one trial weight cut, has me convinced that his judo base and never ending agression will see him edging out shields in a grinding, hard fought descision
mattsterguy - February 21, 2012
I think Shields subs him late and successfully completes Joe Silva's mission to destroy something beautiful
Earl Montclair - February 21, 2012
to hell with that. The sexy loves himself a good story line
three consecutive, convincing losses, followed by a destructive and savage run all the way to the 170 pound strap- you can add kick ass future producer/dirrector to the sexy’s list of unrivalled achievements
mattsterguy - February 21, 2012
Or not.
Unabomberman - February 21, 2012
someones a sad sad realist. stop it right now
mattsterguy - February 22, 2012
Sweet baby Jesu ...
Akiyama will NEVER win. Period.
glib_mf - February 22, 2012
prediction:
Every Japanese fighter on the prelim card who loses will be cut.
Rob Young - February 21, 2012
except Mizugaki
Earl Montclair - February 21, 2012
Well Mizugaki will win. Cariaso doesn't stand much of a chance.
SSreporters - February 21, 2012
via seppuku?
AwkwardwithwordmakingisGoldberg,huhJoe - February 22, 2012
who thinks every japanese fighter on the main card loses?
mattsterguy - February 21, 2012
not me
Earl Montclair - February 21, 2012
Nope, Hioki will cruise to a decision over Bartimus.
I think Okami will have a tough time with Boetsch but can see him being ahead on the cards too.
Rob Young - February 21, 2012
Okami will dominate Boetch to a unaminous decision
milklavar - February 21, 2012
hell no
Bart is got that easy are kidding me
Austin Broussard - February 22, 2012
yep
possible exception being Okami, but even then I don’t think so haha :)
Mr.Ection - February 21, 2012
Where do these lines come from? I want to lay money on Mark Hunt!
mountaineers101 - February 21, 2012
Hunt is a great bet at those odds.
MMAussie - February 21, 2012
Bodog
Tim Burke - February 21, 2012
This fight actually has me conflicted
Hunt probably has a better ground game than Pat Barry (holy shit did I just say that?) and Barry was able to tag and beat the breaks off of Kongo.
At the same time, Kongo just needs one takedown to make Hunt look average.
discoandherpes - February 22, 2012
Hunt’s takedown defense really isn’t all that bad; the problem is that he has zero submission defense. He was the one who took down Overeem in their fight, for example. Kongo doesn’t really have much of a sub game, at least that I’ve seen. It may just be sentimentality but I’m kinda leaning toward Hunt.
Patrick Wyman - February 22, 2012
Agreed.
Hunt is going to win via TKO!
Snatchl - February 22, 2012
People think Vaughan Lee will beat Kid Yamamoto. Me thinks that will not happen…
mountaineers101 - February 21, 2012
Kid is done.
SSreporters - February 21, 2012
hes still better then Vaughn Lee
benten20 - February 21, 2012
Love that sig.
T.C. Engel - February 21, 2012
Vaughan Lee was never started.
mountaineers101 - February 21, 2012
Yamamoto is getting UD'd 30-27
Earl Montclair - February 21, 2012
STOP TELLING
halitosis - February 21, 2012 via mobile
Well he just got tooled by a flyweight
So Lee may not be good (he isn’t), but Yamamoto is totally shot.
SSreporters - February 21, 2012
Mitsuoka+Creepy Joe+Hunt = One legit parlay with a huge upside.
RonSwanson - February 21, 2012
You have any idea where these lines come from?
mountaineers101 - February 21, 2012
Rampage is about to make his comeback and start shutting down the whole division again.. he’ll get another chance to fight for that title
psychoblack - February 21, 2012 via mobile
insta greened
Earl Montclair - February 21, 2012
Explosive in his recs per comment is psychoblack, Earl.
Zachary Kater - February 21, 2012
this greening bizness.....
is kinda getting old brosefs, i see what you guys are doin, but still.
carmine99 - February 21, 2012
Green never ever EVER gets old.
Chris Hall - February 22, 2012 via Android app
I echo carmine99's thoughts
I mean, it’s cool that psychoblack is loyal and adamant about the fighters he supports and believes in, but that’s about the limit of it. I guess I’m not as cultured as you folks or somethin’.
glib_mf - February 22, 2012
So he can slap himself for accepting a fight with Jon Jones again?
mountaineers101 - February 21, 2012
rampage was faded long ago by the nightmarish kicks of Griffin...of the Forrest variety of course.
the only time he gets to wear the belt again is when hes playing jon jones in the film about bones’ carreer
mattsterguy - February 21, 2012
Nah, Phil Davis has that role locked.
VenusBlue - February 21, 2012
"You bet your gosh darn rear end I do"
Earl Montclair - February 21, 2012
um...
did he really say that?!!? :D
Mr.Ection - February 21, 2012
very well played
Bravo.
glib_mf - February 22, 2012
Honestly that isn’t a completely crazy idea in a universe where Jon Jones doesn’t exist. Unfortunately he does, and it is.
mrsaturn - February 21, 2012
loving that sig
halitosis - February 21, 2012
Honestly
That is probably the only thing Chael Sonnen has ever said that I think is totally awesome.
DankNabbot - February 22, 2012
Your shtick
Its old son.
cager - February 21, 2012
20 recs disagree
Horselover Fat - February 22, 2012
Time to put money on Bader, then.
I’d never give him a chance against Rampage, but seeing you forecast a “run through the division” for a fighter pretty much guarantees an embarrassing loss.
BKdroid - February 22, 2012
Lauzon + Hunt + Edgar
MMAussie - February 21, 2012
Boetch at + 300
I’ll take that.
Buddy Revell - February 21, 2012 via mobile
$$$
Jesus H. Christ - February 21, 2012
Really...
I’m pretty wary of picking against Okami when it’s against anyone not named Sonnen or Silva. I like Boetch, but not against Yushin. At all.
Atomic Salmon - February 22, 2012
This is a very big night for the WEC
Pettis is a favorite and he arguably shouldn’t be, and a loss would seriously derail any title hopes for the near future.
Bartimus dropped to 145, knocked out Tyson Griffin (he missed weight, didn’t he?), and now if he wins against Hioki he has a serious case for #1 contender.
Bendo could really increase the WEC’s LW division cred if he can beat Edgar and become an unlikely champion.
Let’s see if they take advantage.
SSreporters - February 21, 2012
All Pettis needs to do to win this fight is answer the second bell
discoandherpes - February 22, 2012
We’re gonna have a new lightweight champion Sunday. I see Edgar standing with bendo for a while but once he feels bendos power, hes gonna shoot and get kneed and put on queer street Then Bendo claps on a guillotine from hell and puts Edgar 2 sleep.
MMA214 - February 21, 2012 via mobile
Bendo has almost no power on the feet. If Henderson wins it'll be through his strength and submission skills.
SSreporters - February 21, 2012
I think he has power, just hasn’t showed it much. He dropped guida like twice who’s known to have a strong chin. Either way Bendos putting him 2 sleep
MMA214 - February 21, 2012 via mobile
Ben Henderson has 2 career KOs
One was Shane Roller, who is an unranked LW, and someone else in regional circuits.
Dropping Guida twice? You make it sound like it’s rare. Off the top of my head, Sanchez, Florian, and Huerta all knocked him down.
Henderson’s boxing is not very good. His ground and pound if anything is what’s vicious.
SSreporters - February 21, 2012
doesn’t matter bendo still puts a beating on Edgar
MMA214 - February 21, 2012 via mobile
I have a feeling like it's going to be like Cerrone-Diaz
Cowboy has had superficially good looking striking against a lot of guys and seemed to be a good all-round fighter, but when he faced real boxing against Diaz, he got clowned.
Edgar will pick Benson apart quite easily, IMO.
paythefighters - February 21, 2012
Guida gets dropped a lot
Just recovers pretty quickly.
discoandherpes - February 22, 2012
And it concerns me that Guida was able to land and drop Bendo
Guida isn’t a very good offensive fighter.
discoandherpes - February 22, 2012
I feel like you've never watched Henderson or Edgar fight before.
Richard Wade - February 21, 2012
I have maybe I’m just blinded because im a huge bendo mark.
MMA214 - February 21, 2012 via mobile
Edgar is going to pick Ben apart on the feet. Henderson needs to get the right to the ground, and not end up on his back.
Hardcharger - February 21, 2012 via mobile
Edgar's striking is dependent on his quick takedown threat
Bendo has some of the best takedown defense in the division and is incredible in scrambles. And he definitely has the gas tank to go 5 rounds with Frankie. I don’t know that I’d favor him, but he’s a very live dog.
Chris Hall - February 22, 2012
It is the same Edgar who beat Maynard, a better wrestler than Henderson who is a also a better striker, with more power in his hands, and all the size and strength that Henderson has.
Hardcharger - February 22, 2012 via mobile
a very fair point
But Henderson is good at getting wins, and if he can get hold of Frankie he may very well be able to muscle him. I think Edgar deserves to be favored, but the line should be, and is, close.
Thor77 - February 22, 2012
Henderson will stay standing only as long as he needs to until he can get hold of Edgar & impose his massive size/strength advantage. Once he takes Frankie down, it will be GNP time until he can latch on to that neck. Benson by RNC in Round 4.
Velcro - February 21, 2012 via mobile
I was gonna say
People expecting anything but a grappling war have not been paying attention to Hendersons UFC run.
Bocek outgrappled, Miller out grappled, Guida out grappled.
He’ll stand a little with Edgar but he’ll get him down. For some reason though I see Edgar getting clipped and/or caught in a Tine in the 4th as well.
cager - February 21, 2012
Those are 3 fighters who emplyee grappling based games.
Frankie Edgar is not of the same ilk. Yes, he likes to hit a few takedowns, but he’s not a grinding wrestler. He prefers to use quick foot work and movement to strike his way to victory.
Chris Hall - February 22, 2012
I keep going back to this thought
What does Ben Henderson do better than Gray Maynard?
Less power, worse boxing, worse takedowns, better GnP, better scrambling, better submissions.
How can a fighter who will have a very, very hard time getting the fight down capitalize on his strengths? How will he set up TD’s when he is constantly being jabbed in the face?
Ulf Murphy - February 22, 2012
If Guida (a guy who could fight at featherweight)
could get Bendo down, I think Edgar could do the same.
discoandherpes - February 23, 2012
Whatever line is on Tamura, I'll put (Fake) money on it
If he has guillotine choke defense, he wins.
SSreporters - February 21, 2012
Very little value here
I like Hunt at +230 and Lauzon at +200; maybe Hioki at -200. Everything else is just about right.
Patrick Wyman - February 21, 2012
Mark Hunt
If he didn’t fight Josh Barnett, then Fedor, then Overeem, then Manhoef, then Mousasi, he’d be 7-1 with his only loss being a fluke submission to McCorkle. This is how I see him. Life is better this way.
Not Hauser - February 21, 2012
I wish he ko’d Mccorkle.
Tats16 - February 21, 2012
I did it in Pride mode on Undisputed 3
Me and my friends were playing and doing ‘random selection’ for our fighters. I got Hunt and he got McCorkle.
Finished it with face stomps.
Funny thing, my friend’s name is Shawn.
Chris Groves - February 21, 2012
He had a rough run over there in Japan before he got over to the UFC, but it was against top competition. Only the Manhoef loss is a little damning, but he can KO anyone (even Mark Hunt!). McCorkle.. I’ve blocked that one out of my memory.
Horselover Fat - February 21, 2012
I just rewatched the Manhoef fight.
It was like 20 seconds. Man that was painful.
Not Hauser - February 21, 2012
Yeah, he ran right into that right hand.
Horselover Fat - February 22, 2012
thanks for letting us know about the 144 countdown on FUEL, BE
I missed the first 15 minutes of it.
why don’t you guys do the countdown discussion threads anymore?
Rob Young - February 21, 2012
Is it still on?
MMA214 - February 21, 2012 via mobile
I might have to put some money
On Hunt and Lauzon.
Genki Sudo's Choreographer - February 21, 2012
Riki Fukuda over Cantwell all day
Fukuda at -250 is a steal
the odds on Cantwell should be +400.. he’s really, really not a UFC fighter anymore. he needs to hit the regional circuit and regain his mojo.
Ben Bauman - February 21, 2012
Cantwell’s actually not that bad, and Fukuda is coming off a nasty car accident injury.
Tim Burke - February 21, 2012
Fukuda apparently trained at 7 different gyms for this fight. His main gym shut down.
(Source: Dan Herbertson’s twitter.)
Ben Thapa - February 21, 2012
And he was wearing a mask at the contract signings, which mean he's ill.
Snatchl - February 22, 2012
Steve Cantwell?
More like Steve Can’t-Fight!
Sugel Mendoza - February 22, 2012
Oh god
I would have gone with “Can’t-fight-well”
Horselover Fat - February 22, 2012
Seconded.
NickRingp4pGOAT - February 22, 2012
Bartimus and Cariaso might be worth it.
jason18 - February 21, 2012
I'm excited for this card
KMcCaig - February 21, 2012
Really pulling for Lauzon
AwkwardBoner - February 21, 2012
Me too
I mean, he caught so much crap for not having ‘UFC caliber victories’ heading into his Guillard fight…I loved that he pulled off the upset.
Wouldn’t mind seeing him do it again.
Chris Groves - February 21, 2012
Fools!
Vaughn’s gonna show why Kid Yamamoto shouldve stayed in school
UK MMA MAN - February 21, 2012
Tim, always say the same thing
Every card you say you don’t see much worth betting on. Any experienced MMA bettor can find plenty of value in any UFC card. Don’t talk about gambling if you don’t know what you are saying.
littlebillywalters - February 21, 2012
Dude, I say there’s a ton to bet on on some cards. You must have missed those.
Tim Burke - February 21, 2012
“not much going on” “I don’t see much value” You use these phrases repeatedly.
littlebillywalters - February 21, 2012
Yeah, because sometimes it’s true. You got any tips for the masses then? Share your knowledge.
Tim Burke - February 21, 2012
/
Earl Montclair - February 21, 2012
I will give you one….If the favorite is between -225 and -350 and has won a majority of his fights by decision, take the over.
littlebillywalters - February 21, 2012
hit this ----------------------------------------------------^
Earl Montclair - February 21, 2012
Well done Earl
Chris Hall - February 22, 2012
If you wanna bet on a bunch of guys at -350, have at it.
Tim Burke - February 21, 2012
Simply awesome name lol
Jesus H. Christ - February 21, 2012
Are you familiar
With the concept of value?
Patrick Wyman - February 21, 2012
How are Edgar and Benod even? I have never seen that in a title fight before.
TheLastEmpress - February 21, 2012
and what about the "Kid"?
He looked atrocious in his last fight. There is absolutely no reason he should be -400 against Lee.
littlebillywalters - February 21, 2012
Because of who he’s facing.
Tim Burke - February 21, 2012
Lee looked good in his last fight. Kid has looked terrible lately and has lost 4 out of last 5, with his only win coming against a tomato can. Here is some more advice. Don’t live in the past. Lee is not great but more than held his own against a legit UFC fighter in his last outing. Kid is a shell of his former self and doesn’t even belong in the UFC. He will most likely lose and then get cut. This line is an obviously wrong.
littlebillywalters - February 21, 2012
Lee kinda looked like complete balls in his last fight.
pdl - February 21, 2012
This.
Tim Burke - February 21, 2012
From what I remember he looked good on the feet in the first
And then just got controlled for the rest of the fight.
AwkwardBoner - February 21, 2012
There’s a reply button there. Use it to respond, it streamlines the conversation.
Chris Cariaso isn’t a very good grappler. He mounted Lee FIVE TIMES in that fight. Kid is not who he used to be, but he has better standup and better takedown defense than Chris Cariaso. Darren U did turn Kid inside out, but Darren’s an awesome grappler. No excuses for Kid, he lost bad – but he was given this fight in Japan because it’s the best possible fight for him in the UFC. Oddsmakers know that.
Tim Burke - February 21, 2012
Still have big money dropped on Shields.
I honestly have faith in him in that fight, I just don’t know why completely. I was going to throw some cash down on Rampage, given the “home field” advantage, but Baders wrestling makes me shaky about doing that. I could honestly see him decisioning ‘Page, he just looks too slow these days.
P.S. Don’t tell PB I said that. He’ll fade my ass.
Dustin Luff - February 21, 2012
Rampage is a better wrestler than Bader
I think your money is fine.
discoandherpes - February 22, 2012
Page’s wrestling is better adapted to MMA, Bader just has blast doubles.
lolumad - February 22, 2012
Pretty much
I don’t see Bader hitting a knee tap anytime soon.
discoandherpes - February 22, 2012
Go ahead and bet on Rampage, I don't think Bader's got much for him.
Quinton can handle blast doubles and a big right hand.
Sweet Scientist - February 22, 2012
over/under
2 nutshots by kongo in this fight ?
carmine99 - February 21, 2012
I'm still not 100% sure I'm prepared for the kind of drunk I'm going to be for a 7 fight main card.
Chris Hall - February 22, 2012
Head to edgehogs.com/mma to make picks for the event
Whoever wins the challenge gets a free UFC 145 pay-per-view
macheetha - February 22, 2012
My playground pick, I'm picking Edgar for the sake of the prediction but hoping Henderson wins
Elitex10x - February 22, 2012
I’ve got Edgar, Jackson, Shields, Kongo and Mitsuoka in a parlay plus a couple of separate bets on Lee and Lauzon.
Brad Ackerson - February 22, 2012
So much value with Boetsch at +300!
I’m puttin the house on it
CrazyHandsCam - February 22, 2012
Save a little bit for a tent just in case
Okami is taller and throws nice clean straight punches that could probably frustrate Tim from range. Boetsch matches up decently with Okami especially if he can get inside and use his power punches and judo throws. Okami by decision is the most likely result, but at those odds Boetsch is a sensible bet.
Thor77 - February 22, 2012
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